India’s Tightrope: Strategic Autonomy and the Ukraine Conflict

Since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India has pursued a cautious and calculated diplomatic path. Rooted in the principle of strategic autonomy, India’s response reflects a careful balancing act between her historical ties with Russia, growing partnership with the West, and her own national interests as an emerging global power. While India has not condemned Russia by name nor joined Western sanctions, she has also not lent unqualified support to Moscow. Instead, New Delhi has sought to maintain space for manoeuvre, preserve its geopolitical flexibility, and position itself as a bridge between competing blocs. Here we explore the rationale, consequences and global perceptions of India’s stance on the Ukraine conflict, arguing that while India’s posture may frustrate both East and West, it remains consistent with her long-held foreign policy traditions and evolving Great Power ambitions.

Historical Context: The Indo-Russian Legacy

India’s strategic relationship with Russia—formerly the Soviet Union—has deep roots. Since the 1950s, Moscow has been a crucial ally, particularly during the Cold War when the United States backed Pakistan and China posed a growing security threat. The Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship (1971), signed shortly before India’s war with Pakistan, symbolised the deep alignment between the two powers. Even after the Cold War, Russia remained India’s largest arms supplier, accounting for over 60% of Indian military imports as of the early 2020s.

This historical dependence continues to shape Indian policy. Despite efforts to diversify her defence purchases in recent years—with deals signed with France, Israel, and the United States—India still relies on Russia for spare parts, maintenance and technical expertise. With over 70% of India’s armoured vehicles and two-thirds of her fighter jets sourced from Russia, any breakdown in relations could significantly impact India’s defence readiness, especially given continuing tensions with China and Pakistan.

Strategic Autonomy in a Multipolar World

India’s diplomatic response to the war has been framed by its doctrine of strategic autonomy, a concept forged in the crucible of the Cold War non-alignment movement and refined in the decades since. Strategic autonomy entails pursuing national interests without becoming beholden to any single bloc or alliance. For India, this means maintaining good relations with the United States and the European Union, deepening ties with partners in Asia and Africa, and preserving her traditional friendship with Russia.

Rather than condemning Russia or embracing the West’s economic war on Moscow, India has repeatedly called for “dialogue and diplomacy”. At the United Nations India has abstained from key resolutions, including those condemning Russian aggression or calling for reparations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken a nuanced stance: in September 2022, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, he told President Putin that “this is not the era of war”, a widely quoted statement that signalled disapproval without breaking ties.

Energy and Economic Interests

Another major factor behind India’s stance is the energy calculus. Since the war began, India has dramatically increased her imports of discounted Russian crude oil, becoming one of the largest buyers of Russian energy in 2023–2025. This has helped India shield her economy from global inflationary shocks and subsidise domestic fuel prices for her 1.4 billion citizens.

Critics argue that this undermines the West’s sanctions regime, but India frames it differently: as an exercise in pragmatism to support development and energy security. Indian officials have consistently pointed out that Europe, too, purchased significant Russian gas well into 2022, and that developing countries cannot be asked to bear the brunt of rising energy costs caused by conflicts they did not start.

Geopolitical Considerations: The China Factor

India’s strategic posture is also shaped by her relationship with China, with whom she shares a tense and heavily militarised border. Since the deadly 2020 Galwan clash, India has intensified military cooperation with the United States, Japan, and Australia through the Quad grouping (a military dialogue forum between the four countries). She has signed key defence agreements with the US and participated in joint naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific. Yet India remains wary of becoming a subordinate partner in a Western-led security architecture.

From New Delhi’s perspective, pushing Russia closer to China through outright condemnation could upset a delicate balance. Russia, while increasingly reliant on Beijing economically, still provides India with diplomatic and military leverage. Maintaining a functional relationship with Moscow allows India to hedge against both Chinese expansionism and Western unreliability.

Global Perceptions and the Moral Question

India’s stance has drawn both criticism and admiration. Western governments have privately expressed frustration, while public opinion in parts of Europe and the US sees India’s neutrality as opportunism. At the same time, many Global South nations—particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia—view India’s approach as a model of independent foreign policy.

Still, moral questions persist. As a democracy that has herself suffered from territorial aggression, India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is seen by some as inconsistent with her democratic values. Ukrainian officials, though careful not to alienate India, have repeatedly asked for stronger support. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s attempts to address the Indian Parliament have not been accepted as of mid-2025, signalling India’s reluctance to take sides.

Opportunities and Challenges Ahead

India’s balancing act provides both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, India has elevated her international profile by positioning herself as a voice of moderation and bridge-building. India's presidency of the G20 in 2023 showcased her diplomatic dexterity, even as divisions over Ukraine remained unresolved. On the other hand, failing to take a clear stand could limit India’s influence in shaping the post-war order and weaken trust among Western allies.

India’s ambitions to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a global rule-maker may ultimately require her to take more assertive positions. Yet for now, India’s strategic ambiguity continues to serve her interests by allowing her to navigate a fragmented and volatile international landscape.

Conclusion

India’s response to the war in Ukraine reflects not indecision, but deliberation. It is the result of long-standing strategic traditions, domestic imperatives, and an evolving global order in which India seeks to rise as a leading power without becoming entangled in great power rivalries. Whether this tightrope walk proves sustainable in the years ahead will depend on the war’s trajectory, India’s economic resilience and the future architecture of global power. For now, India remains committed to her own path—pragmatic, autonomous, and cautiously optimistic.

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Reading List

1. Academic and Analytical Sources

• Pant, Harsh V. & Joshi, Yogesh.

  India’s Foreign Policy: The Modi Era (Manchester University Press, 2020).

  – A detailed overview of India’s evolving foreign policy, including strategic autonomy and Great Power relations.

• Mohan, C. Raja.

  “India and the Ukraine War: A Dilemma in the Making.” Foreign Policy, March 2022.

  – Analysis of India’s neutrality and its geopolitical logic.

• Kapur, S. Paul & Ganguly, Šumit.

  “India’s Foreign Policy and the Global South.” Foreign Affairs, 2023.

  – Discusses India’s positioning among Global South countries amidst the Ukraine conflict.

• Menon, Shivshankar.

  India and Asian Geopolitics: The Past, Present (Brookings Institution Press, 2021).

  – Former National Security Advisor’s reflections on strategic autonomy in a shifting international order.

• Tellis, Ashley J.

  India’s Path to Power: Strategy in a World Adrift (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2022).

  – Examines India’s ambition to become a rule-shaper while preserving autonomy.

2. Policy Reports & Think Tank Publications

• Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi

  
  

  • “India and the War in Ukraine: Energy, Diplomacy and Realpolitik” (2023)

    – Available at: www.orfonline.org

  
  

• Carnegie India

  
  

  • “Navigating the Multipolar World: India’s Strategic Hedging” by Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, 2022

    – Analysis of India’s balancing strategy post-Ukraine invasion.

  
  

• Brookings Institution

  
  

  • “India’s response to the war in Ukraine: A moral failure or realpolitik?” by Tanvi Madan, 2022

    – Explores India’s calculations, public diplomacy, and moral dilemmas.

  
  

• Lowy Institute, Australia

  
  

  • “India and the West: Shared Values, Diverging Responses” (2023)

    – Reflects on India’s divergence from the Western consensus on Ukraine.

  
  

Journalism and Commentary

• The Hindu

  
  

  • Regular reporting on India’s energy imports from Russia and diplomatic engagements.

    – Recommended journalist: Suhasini Haidar (Diplomatic Editor)

  
  

• The Indian Express

  
  

  • “India’s Ukraine balancing act: What Modi told Putin” (Sept 2022, and updates through 2024)

  
  

• Financial Times / Bloomberg / Reuters

  
  

  • Reports on oil trade dynamics, India’s G20 diplomacy, and global reactions to its Ukraine stance.

  
  

• Al Jazeera

  
  

  • “Why India won’t pick sides in the Ukraine war” (2023) – Useful for Global South comparisons.

  
  

4. Official Government Sources and Statements

• Ministry of External Affairs, India (MEA)

  
  

  • Official transcripts of speeches, UN statements, and briefings on Ukraine:

    https://mea.gov.in

  
  

• Lok Sabha & Rajya Sabha Debates

  
  

  • Parliamentary discussions on Ukraine and foreign policy (2022–2025)