Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes and the Future of Maritime Warfare

The ongoing war in Ukraine has catalysed a profound shift in the nature of modern military conflict. Amongst the most dramatic innovations has been Ukraine’s development of long-range drone technology capable of striking Russian naval assets at vast distances — including the previously secure port of Novorossiysk on the eastern Black Sea coast, and even inland waterways such as the Don and Volga rivers. These precision strikes are not merely tactically disruptive; they herald a structural transformation in maritime warfare.

As Russia has moved portions of her Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea to the supposed sanctuary of Novorossiysk and beyond, Ukraine has responded with a relentless campaign of aerial and maritime drone attacks, undermining centuries-old assumptions about what constitutes a “safe harbour”.

Here we explore the technical capabilities of Ukrainian drones in this context, examine how they are used to threaten Russian maritime assets far beyond the traditional theatre of operations, and consider how such tools are changing the strategic landscape of naval warfare, perhaps permanently.

Dispersal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet

The Black Sea Fleet, once a symbol of Russian naval dominance in the region, has suffered repeated setbacks since 2022. Following the destruction of several vessels — most notably the Moskva flagship in April 2022 and multiple landing ships — Russia began a strategic withdrawal of high-value naval assets from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, a port nearly 700 kilometres from the Ukrainian coastline.

Further dispersal up Russia’s riverine infrastructure, particularly the Don and Volga systems, has placed critical warships and logistical platforms deep inland. Moscow presumed that the sheer distance and the complexity of inland access would render these vessels invulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. That assumption has now been upended.

Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Capabilities

Ukraine has developed a sophisticated suite of long-range unmanned systems, both aerial and maritime, many produced indigenously or modified from commercially available platforms.

Aerial Drones

Ukraine’s domestically produced aerial drones used for long-range strikes include:

• UJ-22 and Bober variants: Fixed-wing drones with ranges exceeding 800 kilometres, capable of carrying explosive payloads and guided using pre-programmed GPS routes and terrain-following navigation.

  
  

• Aeroprakt-modified drones: Converted light aircraft used as one-way strike systems, often enhanced with inertial guidance and radio-silent approaches.

  
  

• Jet-powered drones (rumoured): Capable of breaching Russian defences at high speeds, possibly modelled on the Soviet-era Tu-143 or updated versions of the Iranian Shahed-type UAVs.

These drones have targeted oil refineries, fuel depots, naval repair facilities and drydock infrastructure in Novorossiysk and the surrounding area. Some have reportedly flown across or along the Caspian Sea littoral to reach high-value assets up river systems — indicating Ukraine’s ability to project air power without an air force in the traditional sense.

Maritime Drones

Ukraine’s uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) — including the Sea Baby and Magura V5 — have redefined littoral warfare. These low-profile, radar-evading craft have been used to strike targets in Sevastopol, the Kerch Strait, and most remarkably, in Novorossiysk harbour itself.

Launched from civilian ports or hidden maritime positions, these drones use commercial satellite guidance (e.g. Starlink), inertial navigation, and sometimes permit human override via encrypted signal relay. Their low signature and wave-hugging profiles make detection difficult until moments before impact.

Such craft have targeted the Olenegorsky Gornyak, a landing ship damaged in August 2023, and other high-value assets at anchor, underlining the limitations of Russian coastal defences even far from the war zone.

Up-River Vulnerabilities and Psychological Impact

Russia’s riverine network — historically a strategic strength — is now a liability. The Don, Volga, and even Kama rivers offer access points for Ukrainian long-range drones to strike:

• Fuel barges, supply ships, and military tenders have been targeted deep within Russia’s interior.

  
  

• Drones have been launched from within Russia itself or from contested airspace over the Sea of Azov, exploiting internal lines of vulnerability.

This capability has induced a defensive panic, prompting Moscow to move key vessels into enclosed drydocks, increase air defence coverage around inland ports, and shift to convoy-based transport models. Yet even these precautions are proving insufficient.

The psychological impact of such strikes is outsized: no port is safe, and Russia’s long-held assumption of naval superiority in the Black Sea has been shattered.

Strategic Implications for Maritime Warfare

The Ukrainian drone campaign represents a profound evolution in naval doctrine:

1. Asymmetric Naval Deterrence: A landlocked or near-landlocked power can now credibly challenge a major navy through mass-produced drones, neutralising capital ships and logistical support without deploying a single crewed vessel.

   
   

2. Inversion of Strategic Depth: Traditional naval theory prizes distance from the enemy as a source of security. Ukraine has shown that range is no longer protection. Commercially modified drones with extended endurance now reach hundreds of kilometres inland, rendering “rear areas” obsolete.

   
   

3. Cost Disparity and Attrition: Ukrainian drones cost thousands of dollars; Russian ships cost tens or hundreds of millions. This economic asymmetry makes the drone war inherently advantageous to the attacker — and difficult to sustain for the defender.

   
   

4. Naval Infrastructure as a Permanent Target: Dry docks, shipyards, fuelling stations, and command nodes are no longer untouchable. A strike on a docked ship is as valuable as a naval engagement at sea.

   
   

5. Distributed Warfare and Civilian-Military Fusion: Ukraine’s adaptation of civilian drone technology — from FPV racing drones to agricultural UAVs — has blurred the line between commercial and military production. It also demonstrates how a highly motivated civilian population can support national defence.

A New Maritime Age

Ukraine’s use of long-range aerial and maritime drones has shattered longstanding assumptions about maritime strategy and naval safety. In exposing the vulnerability of fleets even in inland waterways and distant ports, Kyiv has written a new chapter in naval warfare — one in which technology, not tonnage, determines superiority.

As these technologies proliferate, other regions — from Taiwan to Iran to coastal African states — will take note. The era of the invulnerable warship in her home port is over. In its place is a world in which any high-value vessel, anywhere, is a potential target.

Ukraine may not have a blue-water navy, but in her war for survival she has pioneered the doctrines of the 21st century’s littoral and inland maritime battlespace.