The War That Froze: Stasis on Ukraine’s Front Line Since November 2022

Modern wars are often imagined as wars of movement—rapid advances, sweeping offensives, maps redrawn week by week. Yet Ukraine’s war with Russia has since late 2022 increasingly resembled an earlier era of attrition, where vast armies remain locked in stalemate. Nearly four years have passed since the liberation of Kherson in November 2022, the last major territorial shift of the conflict, and the front line has since hardened into a scar across the Ukrainian landscape.

The Last Turning Point: Kherson, November 2022

The recapture of Kherson by Ukrainian forces in November 2022 was hailed as a turning point. It marked the first liberation of a regional capital and demonstrated the effectiveness of Western-supplied weaponry, intelligence coordination, and the ingenuity of Ukrainian manoeuvre warfare. Yet with the retreat of Russian forces across the Dnipro, the war entered a new phase. Russia dug in, building elaborate defensive networks, and Ukraine’s capacity for rapid breakthroughs was steadily eroded by the sheer depth of entrenchment.

Ukraine has developed a similar capacity, being so thoroughly dug in through multi-layered defensive positions that Russian Armed Forces are unable to make more than the most minute incremental gains, notwithstanding their much lauded 2025 summer offensive, which has resulted in the occasional capture of villages already completely destroyed. The existence of FPV drones in large numbers on both sides has created a "kill zone", approximately 30 kilometres wide, in which troop movements, whether infantry or mechanised, come with huge losses. Russia's "meatgrinder" approach of sending hundreds of troops to their deaths against fortified Ukrainian positions yields small regional gains on occasion, but contrary to many media reports these gains have achieved little in the way of strategic results for several years. Towns such as Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Orikhiv remain under Ukrainian control despite heavy fighting over several years. The Russians have proven themselves simply unable to seize territory of any significance.

Why the Front Has Hardened

Several factors explain why the line of contact has barely shifted in nearly four years:

• Fortification on a scale unseen in decades: Russia and Ukraine have constructed belts of trenches, minefields, and concrete emplacements stretching for hundreds of kilometres. Satellite images have shown defences reminiscent of the Western Front in 1916.

  
  

• The balance of firepower: Advances became suicidal without overwhelming artillery superiority. Neither side achieved the decisive advantage in shells or air power necessary to dislodge the other.

  
  

• Manpower constraints: Both armies have endured staggering casualties. Ukraine’s limited population base, even with mobilisation, made sustaining large-scale offensives costly, while Russia’s reliance on waves of poorly trained conscripts proved sufficient for holding ground even if not for advancing further.

  
  

• Western caution: Aid was delivered in increments, often too slowly to produce a decisive edge. While advanced systems such as HIMARS, Leopard tanks, and long-range drones made localised gains possible, they did not generate a capacity for sweeping offensives.

The consequence was a grinding equilibrium: high-intensity skirmishes, drone warfare, and incremental gains measured in metres rather than kilometres.

The Human Cost of Stalemate

The absence of movement does not mean the absence of suffering. The front line became a zone of annihilation. Villages along its length were pulverised, changing hands sometimes multiple times before being reduced to rubble. Casualty figures soared, with tens of thousands killed or maimed without altering the territorial balance. Civilians displaced in 2022 found themselves unable to return, their towns frozen between the two armies.

This stasis inflicted a psychological toll as well. Ukrainians came to speak of a “war without end”, in which bravery and sacrifice were undeniable but strategic breakthroughs elusive. For Russians too, the war settled into a rhythm of attritional loss, tolerated by the Kremlin but resented by soldiers and their families. It has also resulted in significant economic suffering for virtually all sectors of the population.

Diplomatic Implications

The stagnant front has defined diplomacy. For Ukraine and her European allies, it underscores the need for sustained rearmament: the war cannot be ended by negotiation while Russia occupies Ukrainian land. For Russia, the static lines provide an excuse to entrench, fortify, and attempt to normalise its gains. International mediators find themselves powerless in the face of a battlefield that offers neither side sufficient leverage to compel compromise.

The Lessons of a Static Front

The immobility of the front line since November 2022 challenges many assumptions about modern war. It demonstrates that even in an age of precision weapons, drones and satellites, industrial-scale trench warfare can still prevail. It highlights the limits of incremental Western aid and the difficulty of sustaining offensive momentum in the face of prepared defences. Above all, it shows that time itself has become a weapon: Russia wagers that a long war will erode Western resolve, while Ukraine counts upon outlasting Russia economically and politically.

The War Without Movement

Nearly four years have passed since Ukrainian troops raised their flag again over Kherson. In that time, the lines on the map have scarcely shifted, although the cemeteries of both nations have expanded beyond measure. This is the paradox of the war: a battlefield frozen in place, yet consuming lives at a relentless pace.

The stillness of the front is not peace. It is the suspension of movement amid continuing destruction, a grim reminder that in modern warfare the absence of territorial change does not equate to stability. For Ukraine, the task remains unchanged: to hold, to endure, and to prepare for the day when the frozen front might thaw.