The United States in Venezuela and the threat to China's world order

Saturday 10 January 2026

A New Theatre in Great-Power Competition

The geopolitical struggle between the United States and China has long been anchored in East Asia, trade disputes and technological rivalry. Yet recent developments in Venezuela—particularly the dramatic shift in US influence following a military operation resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and steps toward normalising Caracas–Washington diplomatic relations—have transformed Latin America into another critical theatre of strategic competition. Here we examine the ways in which increasing US influence in Venezuela poses structural challenges to China’s vision of a world order less dominated by American hegemony, and how these dynamics reflect broader shifts in global power politics. 

Venezuela’s Strategic Importance to China

For Beijing Venezuela has carried both symbolic and practical significance. Over the past two decades China became one of Caracas’s principal economic partners, extending multi-billion-dollar loans (presumably now unlikely to be paid back) in exchange for oil (which may no longer be supplied) and thereby embedding herself in Venezuela’s key energy sector. Prior to recent events, Chinese officials and analysts celebrated that partnership as an example of China’s expanding global reach, one based on economic diplomacy rather than military entanglements. 

Oil has been central to this exchange: Venezuelan crude, though modest in total volume relative to global markets, was for years an established part of China’s diversified energy supplies. Disruption of these ties not only jeopardises China’s direct economic interests but undermines a core pillar of its global China-led energy network. 

The Renewed US Presence and Its Impacts

The recent surge of US influence in Venezuela represents a far more assertive American posture in the Western Hemisphere. The United States has moved beyond sanctions and diplomatic pressure to military intervention, seizure of oil infrastructure and political rapprochement with the interim Venezuelan leadership. Caracas and Washington now appear on a path toward renewed embassies and formal diplomacy, signalling a reassertion of US influence in a region long regarded by Beijing as a space where Washington’s dominance might be waning. 

For China, this compels a strategic recalculation: US influence is no longer confined to soft power or financial incentives but includes potential control over energy assets and political outcomes in a major oil-producing state. The economic leverage this affords Washington has already been seen to affect global crude markets in the short term. It may be perceived as part of the United States' "energy dominance" policy to direct global oil prices over the long term, and thereby undercut Beijing’s geopolitical interests. 

Threats to China’s Vision of a Multipolar World Order

China’s preferred global order is often portrayed as multipolar and rule-based, with Beijing challenging US hegemonic norms by promoting alternatives to Western-dominated institutions. However increasing US influence in Venezuela disrupts this narrative in several ways:

1. Erosion of the Narrative of American Decline

Chinese state media and analyses have frequently emphasised an “era of America’s decline” and the rise of alternative centres of power. Yet the successful projection of US influence deep in the Western Hemisphere punctures that narrative. Beijing’s critics have noted that US actions in Venezuela are not signs of decline but rather of persistent American willingness and capability to intervene—even if controversial. 

2. Reinforcing US Geopolitical Reach

The US role in shaping outcomes in Caracas reinforces Washington’s strategic narrative that it remains a globally influential actor. For China this complicates efforts to build a world order where the US is constrained to her own region and where global politics revolve around markets, infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, and institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. At any point America's superior military and economic weight can puncture Chinese institutional initiatives.

3. Undermining International Law Narratives

Beijing has accused the United States of “hegemonism” and violations of international law in her Venezuela operations. Chinese foreign ministry statements stress that US actions threaten the sovereignty of Latin American states and international norms. These are very similar to the criticisms of US action that have emerged from Europe.

Paradoxically Washington’s aggressive posture also weakens a rules-based order that Beijing purports to support—especially when the US interprets international law flexibly—thus complicating China’s own positioning as a defender of global governance in opposition to the United States.

China and certain parts of Europe therefore appear to be pushed closer together by American actions, at least in terms of pragmatic alignment of their values, placing strain on the transatlantic alliance particularly in light of the current threats by the United States to occupy Greenland, part of a European sovereign territory and NATO ally Denmark.

Strategic Realignments and China’s Responses

Beijing’s strategic reaction has been to emphasise hard power and readiness, rather than immediate diplomatic confrontation. Chinese analysts are increasingly concerned that US willingness to employ force, even unilaterally, highlights the necessity of strengthening China’s own military capabilities. This suggests that rather than retreat from competition, Beijing is likely to intensify its strategic investments in areas such as Taiwan, maritime security and other potential theatres, echoing its reading of US resolve. 

At the same time aggressive US actions may drive more states in Latin America to seek alternative partners. According to some regional analyses, Washington’s intervention could push countries toward Chinese economic and diplomatic engagement in pursuit of balance or autonomy from US dominance. 

The Contest for Global Order

The rise of US influence in Venezuela presents a multifaceted challenge to China’s aspirations for a new world order. It simultaneously undercuts Chinese economic ties, reinforces Washington’s geopolitical reach and complicates Beijing’s narrative of American decline. It also forces China to rethink strategic priorities, potentially accelerating competition in other regions and domains.

The events in Venezuela reveal that global order remains contested between the United States and China, with each power offering distinct visions. While China still advocates multipolarity and economic integration, the increasing assertiveness of US military influence—even in theatres long assumed to be dominated by Beijing—suggests that the competition for global leadership will continue to shape twenty-first-century geopolitics.