The End of Secrecy: Open-Source Intelligence and the Democratisation of War

In every modern war there comes a moment when the traditional monopoly on information is broken. In Ukraine’s struggle against Russia, that moment arrived early—and decisively. Gone are the days when wartime knowledge was the exclusive domain of military elites, security services or governments. Today, volunteers with smartphones, satellite enthusiasts on Twitter, and anonymous analysts with open-source tools are changing how intelligence is collected, verified, and disseminated. This is the era of open-source intelligence—OSINT—and it is fundamentally reshaping how war is understood, fought and politicised.

Here we explore how OSINT has emerged as a central force in Ukraine’s defence, the role it plays in global strategic awareness, and the broader implications for military secrecy, accountability, and the balance of power.

What Is Open-Source Intelligence?

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) refers to the gathering and analysis of information from publicly available sources. These may include:

• Satellite imagery (commercial or publicly shared)

  
  

• Social media posts, videos and photographs

  
  

• Civilian sensor networks and mobile data

  
  

• Public government databases or shipping registries

  
  

• Amateur radio intercepts or flight-tracking data

Unlike classified intelligence, which depends on espionage, intercepted communications, or state-controlled satellites, OSINT operates in the open. It is often conducted by civilians—journalists, researchers, hobbyists—who use freely accessible tools to track military movements, verify battlefield events, and expose atrocities.

Ukraine as the OSINT War

From the first day of Russia’s full-scale invasion, OSINT began to fill the fog of war with clarity. Civilian investigators quickly geolocated Russian convoys, mapped artillery strikes, and even identified specific units and officers involved in war crimes. Tools such as Sentinel Hub, Planet Labs satellite feeds, and open databases like Google Maps, TikTok and VKontakte (a Russian social networking platform) provided raw data that Ukrainian and international analysts interpreted with astonishing speed.

Among the most notable OSINT contributors:

• Bellingcat, the investigative collective famous for exposing Russia’s role in the downing of MH17, the civilian airliner shot down by Russian-backed forces from occupied Ukraine in 2014.

  
  

• OSINTtechnical, an anonymous social media analyst known for high-quality battlefield assessments.

  
  

• DeepStateMap, a Ukrainian project that tracks front-line developments daily with input from military sources and civilians.

  
  

• GeoConfirmed, which rigorously geolocates video footage from across the theatre of war.

Such platforms have allowed ordinary citizens around the world to watch battles unfold in near real-time, often faster than state intelligence services can publish reports. In some cases, these tools have rivalled or surpassed official assessments—particularly in debunking Russian disinformation campaigns.

The Strategic Role of OSINT in Ukrainian Defence

For Ukraine, the benefits of OSINT go far beyond public awareness. They include:

1. Crowdsourced situational awareness

   
   

   Ukrainian volunteers use Telegram, X (formerly Twitter) and drone footage to alert the military about incoming threats or troop movements. This decentralised awareness supports rapid tactical response.

   
   

2. Civilian-military information fusion

   
   

   The Ukrainian Armed Forces incorporate OSINT insights into operational planning. Civilian analysts work closely with military units, translating online discoveries into actionable intelligence.

   
   

3. Disinformation resistance

   
   

   OSINT acts as a counterweight to Russian propaganda. Claims about Ukrainian “provocations” or false-flag operations are quickly discredited when independent researchers geolocate video evidence or cross-reference metadata.

   
   

4. War crimes documentation

   
   

   Massacres in Bucha, Mariupol, and Izium were rapidly documented by volunteers who compiled visual evidence for international legal investigations. This creates a form of distributed, anticipatory justice.

   
   

5. Morale and national unity

   
   

   The Ukrainian public follows the war through OSINT channels that offer granular, timely updates. This transparency builds trust and strengthens civic engagement in the war effort.

The Erosion of Secrecy

For Russia and other authoritarian regimes, OSINT poses a unique problem: it erodes the state’s ability to control the narrative. Traditionally, autocratic powers depend on secrecy to shield operational failures and justify repression. But in the OSINT age, cover stories are rapidly undone:

• Footage of Russian missile launches is traced within minutes to their firing location.

  
  

• False claims about NATO “provocations” are discredited by timestamped satellite images.

  
  

• Disguised troop movements are identified by vehicle tyre tracks or reflections in windows.

This transparency has even made its way into the Kremlin itself. The (presumably murdered) Russian dissident Alexey Navalny’s anti-corruption team used open registries to track the luxury properties of Russian officials. Journalists have revealed the identities of FSB agents by examining leaked data dumps and public directories.

The Global Impact: OSINT as a Tool of Democratisation

Beyond Ukraine, the globalisation of OSINT is altering the strategic landscape in three important ways:

1. Democratising strategic analysis

   
   

   Military assessments are no longer the exclusive domain of generals. Civil society, academic institutions and even teenagers can produce accurate, credible intelligence analyses. This levels the playing field between states and non-state actors.

   
   

2. Holding power to account

   
   

   OSINT exposes not only enemy actions but the decisions of one’s own government. In democracies, this adds a layer of transparency to wartime decision-making. In autocracies, it acts as a check on propaganda.

   
   

3. Accelerating escalation or restraint

   
   

   The public dissemination of intelligence—once tightly controlled—can now affect diplomatic timelines. Satellite images of troop buildups or atrocities can pressurise governments to act quickly, or at least to explain their inaction. The inverse is also true: rogue states in particular may hesitate to act if they fear immediate public exposure of operational details.

Risks and Limitations

OSINT is not without its dangers:

• Information overload can create confusion rather than clarity, particularly when false leads or manipulated videos go viral.

  
  

• Operational compromise is a risk when well-meaning citizens post troop locations or logistics data.

  
  

• Disinformation cloaked as OSINT is increasingly common. Russian operatives have adopted OSINT-like formats to spread credible-seeming falsehoods.

  
  

• Ethical boundaries are not always clear. The line between public interest and voyeurism can blur, especially when images of the dead or wounded are shared indiscriminately.

  
  

Governments have begun to adapt. Some Western agencies now publish selected satellite images or intelligence briefings to shape public understanding. Others maintain a cautious silence, wary of contaminating intelligence streams. The balance between secrecy and transparency is constantly in flux.

War in the Age of Visibility

In Ukraine, the power of OSINT has reached a critical threshold. It no longer simply supports military operations—it defines them. In a war where truth itself is contested terrain, the ability to see, verify and share becomes a weapon. This is not the total abolition of secrecy, but its radical reduction. Armies will still keep secrets, but they must now operate under the assumption that every action may be seen, mapped, and dissected by civilians.

The long-term consequence is a new kind of warfare—one in which public knowledge and private operations are intertwined, where truth moves faster than censors, and where the democratic control of war is not merely a constitutional principle but a technological reality.

In Ukraine the future of warfare has arrived not only with drones and algorithms, but with the silent power of millions of watchful eyes.