Replenishing Ammunition Stockpiles: Ukraine and Europe’s Struggle to Meet Wartime Demands

The ongoing war in Ukraine has starkly highlighted a recurring lesson from military history: actual ammunition consumption in major conflicts often far exceeds prewar estimates. This discrepancy has placed immense pressure on Ukraine and its European allies rapidly to scale up ammunition production, particularly in the face of Russia’s substantial manufacturing capabilities.

Ammunition Consumption and Production Challenges

Ukraine’s defence relies heavily on both Soviet-standard and NATO-standard ammunition. The transition to NATO calibres, such as 155mm artillery shells, has been a significant focus, given their compatibility with Western-supplied weaponry. However the shift presents logistical challenges, as Ukraine continues to operate a mix of Soviet-era and modern systems.

In response to escalating demands, the European Union initiated the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), an EU piece of legislation passed on 1 June 2023, allocating a first trance of €500 million to boost production capacities by March 2024. The goal is to achieve an annual output of 2 million artillery shells by the end of 2025. This ambitious target involves investments in 31 projects across five sectors, including explosives, gunpowder, and projectiles, aiming to enhance the EU’s defence industry’s responsiveness. 

Despite these efforts, current production levels fall short. As of early 2024, European production capacity for 155mm shells was approximately 1 million per year, with projections to reach 1.7 million by the end of the year. However experts caution that these figures may be optimistic, and actual capacities could be lower due to supply chain constraints and the time required to ramp up manufacturing. In November 2024, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell asserted that the EU had provided some 980,000 shells to Ukraine with a goal of 1 million by the end of the year. The EU is falling short of its own targets.

Comparative Production Capacities

Russia’s ammunition production capabilities significantly outpace those of the EU and the United States combined. NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe has indicated that Russia is on track to build a shell stockpile three times greater than that of the US and Europe combined. According to a NATO intelligence estimate dated March 2024, Russia is producing about 3 million artillery shells per year, placing the EU and the United States, and NATO more broadly, in the shadows.

This disparity underscores the urgency for Western nations to enhance their production capacities and address logistical bottlenecks. This needs to be undertaken urgently, in order adequately to resist Russia's 2025 summer offensive.

Financial Implications and Strategic Considerations

Meeting Ukraine’s ammunition needs requires substantial financial investment. The EU’s ASAP initiative, with its €500 million allocation, is a step toward addressing this challenge. However experts argue that long-term contracts and sustained funding are essential to ensure a consistent supply of ammunition and to incentivise manufacturers to expand production. 

In addition, the reliance on both NATO and Soviet-standard ammunition necessitates a dual-track approach in production and procurement strategies. While transitioning to NATO calibres is a strategic objective, maintaining and supplying Soviet-standard ammunition remains critical for the immediate operational needs of Ukraine’s armed forces.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine has exposed significant gaps in ammunition production and supply chains within Europe and amongst NATO allies. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated efforts to boost manufacturing capacities, secure long-term funding, and develop comprehensive strategies that account for the diverse ammunition needs of Ukraine’s military. Failure to do so risks prolonging the conflict and undermining the defence capabilities of Ukraine and her allies.