Hope

By Rome

I visited Ukraine three times before the Russian invasion. As a past student of language and history, an inveterate traveller, and a child of the Cold War, I was curious about, and attracted, to this country larger than France and home to historic Odesa, charming Lviv, and ancient Kyiv. Ukraine had suffered so much in the 20th century until finally released from the Soviet, then Kremlin’s, grip with the courageous and peaceful Maidan Revolution of 2014. Ukrainians were struggling to define their own path, and tilting heavily to the west.Freedom.  Democracy. I wanted to know them.

Like most of the world, I was shocked and appalled by the brutality of the war unleashed on Ukraine by Putin’s military in February 2022. And like most of the world, I was amazed – and thrilled – by the Ukrainian resistance.

I raced to the Ukrainian border to shepherd refugees, mostly women and children, by minivan, to whatever their destination may be in Poland. I have since returned one month each year to Ukraine as a non-combatant volunteer. I supported a Ukrainian woman and her newborn, living occasionally in a bomb shelter, while she obtained a scholarship to the US. My efforts were tiny in the grand scheme of things. But as [the now dead Russian dissident Alexey Navalny] said, there is no shame in doing little for a great cause; the shame is in doing nothing.

Over three years later, after unspeakable destruction of property and lives, a static frontline deservedly called a meat grinder, and occasionally inconceivable international hesitation about who should support Ukraine, and how much - what do I feel? I still support Ukraine, more than 100%. Is this hope? Given the rarely uplifting news from Ukraine, as deaths on the battlefield mount, stories of corruption emerge, and the US government appears clueless about the stakes at risk, it may be easier to support the Ukrainian cause than to keep hope.

I can say one thing without reserve:  A victory by Putin in Ukraine will leave Europe a darker continent, and the world a more dangerous place. It will be a violation of most of what had been achieved by the Allied victory in World War II and the concept of law-based peace between countries. It will be a world where I will not feel at home.

What is a victory by Putin?  My answer: any outcome that leaves Russia better off and Ukraine worse as a result of the invasion.

On the one hand, Russia being better off appears doubtful, if there is truth in analyses circulated by the press. From drastically increased authoritarian rule at home, to an economy burdened by outsized military expenses and the loss of a million young minds, to broad international sanctions and isolation, Russia is unlikely to be better off in the coming years, if not decades. However, a “victory” on the battlefield may give rise to a wave of Russian patriotism and support for Putin, with the result that Russia “feels” better off. This scenario is worrisome, and bodes poorly for smooth relations with the now highly militarised Russian state. Can an information counter-offensive be carried out effectively? Probably not.

What about Ukraine? I do not have the knowledge or expertise to comment on mineral deals, renewed access to grain shipping routes, urban renewal programs, or other possible avenues for Ukrainian economic recovery. What matters to me however is the mind, the soul, the spirit, of Ukraine. For me, that is where victory or defeat occurs.

Unfortunately, I once again do not have the knowledge or expertise to comment on where the Ukrainians will be in this regard. Yes, I have directly encountered the strong Ukrainian spirit through my months of volunteer work in Ukraine in recent years. But I cannot comfortably generalize from that limited sample.

So where does that leave me? I look at history and see the dynamic rebirth of Germany and Japan following their defeat and largescale destruction in 1945. More recently, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, I see more skyscrapers rising in Warsaw, modern shopping in Bratislava, democracy deepening its roots in much of Eastern Europe, though not everywhere. The lesson: where strong domestic will meets strong international support, destruction can be turned to creation, suffering can be turned to health.

Eventually, the fighting on the Russian-Ukraine frontline will stop. I cannot say when or how. A border, temporary or definitive, will be set. A real victory will then be possible if Ukraine and the West work hard together to create a Ukrainian future that meets its aspirations and is worthy of the sacrifices now being made. Ukrainians will continue to need to be strong, Ukrainian leadership must be focused and effective, and the West must be ready to match the courage of the Ukrainian soldiers and their supporters. They should create a fund for Ukrainian reconstruction and station military forces where they will discourage further incursions, ie, in Ukraine.

This is my hope. That Ukraine shines. That Ukrainian universities graduate eager cohorts. That Ukrainian grain flows. That Kiev hosts important international colloquia. Maybe the Olympics?! That Ukrainian techies turn their worldclass skills into peaceful exploits. That flowers grow in fields where bodies have fallen. I am not Ukrainian. But I hope.