Putin’s Wager on Western Social Conservatism

Vladimir Putin has long understood that Russia cannot match the collective military or economic weight of the Western alliance. His strategy therefore relies upon asymmetric instruments: disinformation, political influence, and the exploitation of ideological fissures within liberal democracies. One of his most consistent wagers has been that a rise of social conservatism in parts of the West can be harnessed to sow division, weaken consensus on Ukraine, and legitimise aspects of Russia’s worldview.

The Ideological Battleground

Since 2012, the Kremlin has increasingly presented Russia as the defender of “traditional values” against Western liberalism. The official promotion of Orthodox family ideals, hostility to LGBTQ+ rights, and suspicion of feminism has been framed as a civilisational struggle. Putin’s speeches often juxtapose Russia’s moral clarity with what he depicts as Western decadence.

Moscow has learned that such themes resonate abroad. Many conservative movements in Europe and North America oppose liberal social reforms, and Russia amplifies their rhetoric through state-sponsored media, church diplomacy and covert funding. The aim is not necessarily to win allies but to weaken solidarity by reinforcing ideological divides within Western societies.

Channels of Influence

• Media and Disinformation: RT, Sputnik, and troll farms such as the Internet Research Agency amplify conservative grievances, particularly on issues of immigration, family, and sovereignty.

  
  

• Church Diplomacy: The Russian Orthodox Church promotes “family values” networks with Western Christian conservatives.

  
  

• Financial Support: Loans and covert funding for parties such as France’s National Rally or Italy’s League illustrate Moscow’s willingness to underwrite sympathetic movements.

  
  

• Conspiracy Ecosystems: Russian bots amplify culture-war narratives about COVID-19 restrictions, migration, and LGBTQ+ rights to deepen mistrust of liberal elites.

The Limits of the Strategy

Conservative currents in the West are far from uniform. Poland combines social conservatism with intense hostility to Moscow. The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 discredited Russia’s claim to moral guardianship. Investigations have exposed Russian financing and propaganda, reducing credibility. Moscow’s appeal as a “protector of tradition” has been blunted by the brutality of its war.

Forward-Looking: Elections and the Risks of Division

The coming years present crucial tests. In 2025–2026, several major democracies will hold elections—most notably the United States, France, and Germany. Each campaign season offers opportunities for Russia to inflame cultural grievances and exploit divisions:

• United States (2026 midterms, following the 2024 presidential cycle): American politics is already polarised around social issues. Russian disinformation networks will likely amplify debates on immigration, abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and race, hoping to weaken bipartisan consensus on aid to Ukraine. If isolationist tendencies prevail in parts of the Republican Party, US leadership in sustaining Ukraine could falter.

  
  

• France (2027 presidential campaign): The National Rally has softened its overtly pro-Russian stance but retains scepticism towards EU foreign policy. Russian media and funding networks may attempt to present social conservatism as inseparable from resistance to “Brussels’ liberal hegemony,” eroding French commitment to sanctions and arms supplies.

  
  

• Germany: The rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) illustrates the danger. By framing Ukraine support as a project of liberal elites disconnected from ordinary families, AfD blends cultural conservatism with foreign policy scepticism. Russian channels amplify this rhetoric in the hope of destabilising Germany’s political centre.

  
  

• Central Europe: Leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia already provide Moscow with partial diplomatic cover inside the EU. If their narratives spread, Russia could hope to block or dilute future sanctions packages and complicate EU unity.

How Ukraine and Her Allies Can Respond

Ukraine and her supporters cannot ignore the cultural terrain in which Russia operates. Counter-strategy requires:

1. Separating Social Values from Security Commitments

   
   

   Ukraine must make clear that Western support is about defending sovereignty, deterring aggression, and upholding international law—not about endorsing any particular social agenda. Conservative audiences may oppose aspects of liberal culture, but they can still recognise the danger of Russian imperialism.

   
   

2. Highlighting Russia’s Hypocrisy

   
   

   Moscow presents herself as guardian of family values, yet the war in Ukraine has produced mass killings, deportations of children, and destruction of homes. Framing Russia’s conduct as the greatest assault on families in Europe since the Second World War can resonate with socially conservative audiences.

   
   

3. Exposing Foreign Influence Operations

   
   

   Western governments and media should continue to investigate and publicise Russian financing and disinformation networks. Transparency blunts their effectiveness and allows voters to see cultural debates for what they sometimes are: manipulated distractions.

   
   

4. Engaging Conservative Voices Directly

   
   

   Ukrainian diplomacy can reach out to Western conservative constituencies, stressing shared themes of patriotism, sovereignty, and defence of one’s homeland. Positioning Ukraine’s struggle as a defence of Christian Europe against tyranny, rather than a liberal project alone, broadens the coalition of support.

Conclusion: Putin’s Risky Gamble

Putin is indeed gambling that the rise of social conservatism in the West can be manipulated to divide democracies and weaken support for Ukraine. His influence campaigns—through media, church diplomacy, financing, and disinformation—will intensify as Western elections approach.

Yet this is a gamble, not a certainty. Conservative movements are diverse, many are instinctively anti-Russian, and the exposure of Moscow’s manipulation reduces its effectiveness. The brutality of the war itself undermines Russia’s claim to moral authority.

The Kremlin’s hope is not to convert the West to its worldview but to exhaust it with division and distraction. Whether that gamble pays off depends less on Moscow’s ingenuity than on the resilience of Western democracies to see through the ruse and maintain unity. For Ukraine, the task is to ensure that her cause transcends ideological divides, so that support rests not on contested cultural values but on the universal principles of freedom, sovereignty, and the defence of families and nations against aggression.