Japan and the Defence of the Liberal Order: Resisting Sino-Russian Multipolarity

The twenty-first century has been marked by renewed contests over the nature of the international system. While the end of the Cold War brought a period of unipolarity dominated by the United States and her allies, China and Russia now seek to engineer an alternative: a multipolar order in which their influence is enhanced and Western predominance curtailed. For this project to succeed, it requires the acquiescence—or at least the passivity—of Asia’s great powers. Yet Japan stands as a formidable obstacle. Situated on the fault-line between Pacific and Eurasian spheres, deeply integrated into Western institutions yet geographically bound to Asia, Japan is uniquely positioned to resist this attempt at geopolitical realignment.

Her role cannot be measured solely in terms of her own military or economic capacities. Rather Japan symbolises the survival of the rules-based order in Asia. Her decisions resonate throughout the region, influencing the calculations of allies, rivals, and neutral states alike. Understanding Japan’s importance requires placing her current policies in their historical, diplomatic, economic, and security contexts.

Japan’s Post-1945 Settlement: From Pacifism to Security Anchor

Following her defeat in the Second World War, Japan adopted a pacifist constitution under American guidance. Article 9 renounced the use of force as an instrument of national policy. For decades, Japan relied upon the protective umbrella of the United States while concentrating on economic growth. Yet this settlement had two unintended consequences.

First, Japan became the bedrock of American power in Asia. The presence of US military bases in Okinawa and elsewhere meant that Washington could project naval and air capabilities deep into the Pacific. Second, Japan’s very pacifism made her an exemplar of how an Asian nation could achieve prosperity through peaceful means, a striking contrast to the militarism of her past.

As the Cold War waned, Japan began to stretch the boundaries of her constitutional limitations. Peacekeeping deployments, support roles in the Gulf War, and increasing participation in multilateral security dialogues signalled a shift. The rise of China, the unpredictability of North Korea, and the resurgence of Russia have accelerated this trend. Japan now regards herself not merely as a passive beneficiary of Western security but as an active guarantor of it.

Geography and Strategy: The Pacific Front Line

Japan’s geography alone renders her indispensable. She is an island nation straddling the East China Sea, the Philippine Sea and the Sea of Japan. These waters are arteries of global commerce: a substantial proportion of the world’s oil and goods pass through the straits around Japan.

For China, whose energy imports are vulnerable to maritime interdiction, controlling the seas around Japan is essential to her ambitions of regional hegemony. For Russia, whose Far Eastern territories remain sparsely populated but resource-rich, projecting naval and air power into the Pacific offers a way of demonstrating relevance despite the decline of her European-based economy.

Japan is therefore on the front line of both Chinese and Russian strategic expansion. Her alliance with the United States allows Washington to maintain naval dominance in the Pacific, check Beijing’s advances towards Taiwan, and counter Russian naval deployments from Vladivostok and Kamchatka. Without Japanese cooperation, America’s ability to sustain deterrence across Asia would be gravely weakened.

Alliance Structures: From Bilateral to Multilateral Engagement

Japan’s relationship with the United States is often described as the “cornerstone” of regional security. The 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security created a durable framework under which American forces would defend Japan in exchange for basing rights. Yet Tokyo has moved beyond mere bilateralism.

In recent years Japan has pursued security partnerships with Europe, signing reciprocal access agreements with the United Kingdom and Australia, and participating in naval exercises with France and Germany. These moves reflect a recognition that security in Asia is indivisible from security in Europe. China and Russia cooperate strategically; hence the democracies must do likewise.

Japan’s diplomacy emphasises freedom of navigation, adherence to international law, and collective security. This positions her as a bridge between Europe and Asia, countering Sino-Russian efforts to portray the liberal order as exclusively Western.

Economic Power and Technological Leverage

Japan’s economic significance magnifies her strategic role. As the world’s third-largest economy, she provides a crucial counterweight to Chinese dominance of Asian trade. Japan has consistently aligned herself with Western sanctions regimes, even when this has entailed economic sacrifice—such as cutting energy imports from Russia following her invasion of Ukraine.

Perhaps more significant is Japan’s control over key technologies. The Japanese semiconductor industry, advanced robotics, and precision manufacturing are vital to global supply chains. By joining the United States and the Netherlands in restricting exports of advanced chip-making equipment to China, Japan has directly hampered Beijing’s ability to accelerate her military-industrial modernisation. In this way, Japan’s industrial policy has become an instrument of geopolitical resistance.

Japan also leads in financing infrastructure alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, offering loans and technical assistance to Asian and African nations that prefer transparent, rules-based development projects. This softens Beijing’s ability to leverage economic dependence into political influence.

Diplomatic and Normative Leadership

Japan wields considerable normative influence. As a democracy that rebuilt itself from wartime devastation into prosperity, she provides an example that resonates across Asia. Tokyo has long championed development assistance, disaster relief and multilateral cooperation. Her engagement in the G7, APEC (the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum) and the United Nations positions her as a voice for moderation and stability.

In the Indo-Pacific, Japan has been at the forefront of articulating the concept of a “free and open” region. This vision counters China’s narrative of hierarchical order under her dominance. By emphasising sovereignty, international law and openness, Japan helps smaller states in Southeast Asia and the Pacific resist coercion.

Unlike the United States, Japan does not carry the historical baggage of colonialism in Asia, which makes her advocacy more acceptable in certain contexts. She can speak with moral authority about the dangers of authoritarian expansionism, thereby undermining Chinese and Russian claims that the Western order is alien to Asian traditions.

Military Modernisation and Strategic Resolve

Perhaps the most dramatic change in Japan’s role is the transformation of her Self-Defence Forces. Traditionally limited in scope, they are now undergoing the most significant modernisation in decades. Japan is acquiring long-range strike missiles, developing advanced missile defence systems, and expanding her naval and air capabilities.

These steps signal a fundamental shift: Japan is preparing not merely to defend her territory, but to contribute actively to regional deterrence. This rearmament complicates Chinese and Russian calculations. A strike against American forces in the Pacific would now inevitably involve Japanese forces as well, raising the risks for Beijing and Moscow of aggressive action.

The symbolism of Japan’s resolve is as important as the capabilities themselves. By demonstrating that she is no longer content to remain a passive ally, Japan strengthens the credibility of the Western coalition. She signals to both friend and foe that Asia will not acquiesce to authoritarian revisionism.

Japan’s Role in a Wider Contest of Systems

The contest between unipolarity and multipolarity is not merely about power but about systems. China and Russia envision a world divided into spheres of influence where authoritarian regimes dictate order within their regions. Japan embodies the alternative: a global order where law, commerce, and diplomacy restrain the arbitrary exercise of power.

In this sense, Japan’s role transcends her immediate security environment. She demonstrates that democracy and prosperity can thrive in Asia. She embodies the principle that rules-based order is not exclusively Western but can be genuinely universal. And she underlines that the attempt to engineer multipolarity is not a natural evolution of international relations but a deliberate effort by authoritarian powers to entrench their dominance.

A Competition of Ideologies

China and Russia’s multipolar project depends upon dividing regions, coercing neighbours, and persuading others that the liberal order is fading. Japan frustrates each of these strategies. Her geography denies authoritarian powers uncontested access to the Pacific. Her alliances link the security of Europe and Asia into a common cause. Her economy and technology reinforce Western resilience. Her diplomacy inspires others to resist coercion. Her military modernisation strengthens deterrence.

Without Japan’s steadfastness, the liberal order in Asia would be gravely weakened. With it, China and Russia face an opponent far more formidable than either anticipated: not merely the United States, but a coalition of democracies anchored by one of the most resilient and capable nations of the Pacific. In this respect, Japan is not merely important but indispensable in resisting the authoritarian ambition of multipolar realignment.