Europe's reliance on Russian liquefied natural gas

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union (EU) has grappled with reducing its dependence on Russian energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG). Despite initial strides toward diversification, Russian LNG imports into the EU reached record levels in 2024, highlighting the complexities of energy security, market dynamics, and geopolitical considerations. This trend now seems to be reversing, and it is worth exploring how LNG imports from Russia to the European Union reached such levels and what can be done to reverse it.

Shifting LNG Suppliers: A Timeline

Prior to the 2022 invasion, Norway was the EU’s largest LNG supplier, with Russia in second place. In response to the conflict, the United States significantly increased her LNG exports to Europe, becoming the EU’s second-largest supplier in 2022. However by 2023 and 2024, Russia regained her position as the EU’s second-largest LNG supplier, with imports reaching 22.7 billion cubic metres in 2024—a record high, amounting to some US$7.7 billion of gas (approximate value based on Russian LNG CIF (Carriage-Insurance-Freight) December 2024 prices). This amounts to over 10% of Russia's overall war economy, which is estimated at $75 billion per annum.

Mechanisms of Russian LNG Supply to the EU

Maritime Shipments: Russia primarily exports LNG to the EU via maritime routes, with significant volumes originating from Novatek’s Yamal LNG plant in Sabetta, at the northeast of the Yamal peninsula, itself in northwest Siberia: one of the most remote locations in Russia. Fifteen special Yamalmax icebreakers have to be used to load and transport LNG from the Sabetta plant, due to the year-round icy conditions, and at the current time the only way in or out of Sabetta is by aeroplane or ship. European ports such as Dunkirk in France and Zeebrugge in Belgium serve as key entry points, with some facilities facilitating transshipment to other regions.

Map showing Sabetta, the location of the Yamal LNG plant, on the Yamal peninsula in northwestern Siberia.

Pipeline Transit: Historically, Russia also supplied natural gas to Europe through pipelines transiting Ukraine. However, Ukraine terminated her gas transit contract with Russia at the end of 2024, effectively halting this route. The shipping route from Sabetta to Europe remains open.

Navigating Sanctions and Market Realities

While the EU has imposed sanctions on Russian coal and oil, LNG imports have largely remained exempt. The statutory basis for the European Union’s exemptions allowing the import of Russian LNG is found in the 14th sanctions package, specifically in Council Regulation (EU) 2024/1745, which amends Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014. This regulation introduces several key provisions. Article 3r prohibits EU entities from providing reloading services for the transshipment of Russian LNG within EU territory. However a derogation exists for transshipment operations necessary for transport to an EU Member State that confirms the transshipment is used to ensure its energy supply. Article 3u prohibits the purchase, import, or transfer of Russian LNG through EU LNG import terminals not connected to the EU's interconnected natural gas system. These provisions aim to restrict the re-export of Russian LNG through EU ports, while still allowing imports intended for EU consumption.

This exemption, coupled with the competitive pricing of Russian LNG, has led to increased imports despite political tensions. Analysts note that Russian LNG is often priced lower than alternatives, making it an attractive option for European buyers.

In March 2025, the EU planned to implement a ban on all transshipment of Russian LNG at EU ports irrespective of another Member State's confirmation that the transshipment is used to ensure its energy supply. This aims to curb indirect exports of Russian LNG to non-EU countries through fraudulent paperwork and the like. This plan has not at the date of writing been implemented, however.

The very existence of the EU's exemption on sanctions for LNG demonstrates that the EU is extremely reliant upon Russian LNG exports, even if other types of hydrocarbons have been restricted by sanctions. So the EU is still in substantial degree funding the Russian war effort.

The US Response and Future Outlook

The United States has continued to bolster its LNG exports to Europe, with President Trump proposing a $350 billion energy deal to further reduce the EU’s reliance on Russian energy. While this initiative underscores the strategic importance of US-EU energy cooperation, logistical and infrastructural challenges may impact its full realisation. The requisite levels of LNG transport vessels across the Atlantic do not yet exist, and they are costly and time consuming to create.

Looking ahead, the EU’s REPowerEU plan, a plan to reduce reliance on Russian hydrocarbons by eliminating energy waste, diversifying energy sources, and moving towards green energy, aims to eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Achieving this goal will require continued investment in alternative energy sources, infrastructure development, and cohesive policy implementation across member states.

Conclusions - A Change in Direction

The EU’s journey to energy independence from Russia is marked by significant challenges and complex market dynamics. While progress has been made, the record-high imports of Russian LNG in 2024 highlight the need for sustained efforts and strategic planning to achieve long-term energy security and geopolitical stability.

In early 2025, the United States has again become the second highest supplier of LNG to Europe after Norway. According to the Breugel thinktank that monitors gas transit globally, in the first quarter of 2025 Norway was selling the annual equivalent of 23.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), with the United States at 18 bcm and Russia at 10 bcm. Nervertheless this still amounts to some $3.4 billion of LNG that the EU is buying from Russia in the middle of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: so over 4.5% of Russia's annual war budget. Hence the United States is stepping up supplies to the EU to wean the EU off Russian gas and to compensate for Ukraine's December 2024 closure of the principal Russian gas supply route to Europe via Uzhhorod in western Ukraine (the so-called "Brotherhood" or "Trans-Siberian" pipeline. Nonetheless increased cooperation between the United States and Europe will be required in the short term to cut off European dependence on Russian gas, even if the RePowerEU plan's 2027 targets can be realistically achieved.