Estimating Russian casualties on the Ukrainian front

The precise number of Russian casualties on the front line in Ukraine remains a highly contested and sensitive issue, with various media outlets and official sources offering significantly divergent estimates. This discrepancy is largely due to the inherent difficulties in wartime reporting, the lack of transparency from the Russian government and the strategic motivation of both sides to present figures that serve their narratives. However by examining the methods and biases of the key reporting entities, we can assess which estimates are most likely to be accurate.

One of the most diligent and widely cited independent investigations is a joint project by Mediazona (a Russian independent media outlet) and the BBC Russian Service. As of early to mid-May 2025, their collaboration has confirmed the identities of over 107,000 Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine. Their methodology relies on open-source data, including obituaries, posts by relatives, memorial community tree-plantings, regional media reports and statements from local authorities. They emphasise that this figure is a minimum and that the actual number is likely significantly higher, as not every death becomes public knowledge. Military experts cited by the BBC/Mediazona suggest their confirmed death toll may cover between 45% and 65% of actual fatalities, which would place the total number of Russian killed soldiers between approximately 164,000 and 237,000. This estimate does not include the wounded.

By contrast Ukrainian government estimates tend to be considerably higher. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly reports daily Russian losses, which typically include killed, wounded, captured and missing personnel. As of late May 2025, their cumulative figure for Russian "troop losses" since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 is approaching one million (e.g. 987,330 troops as of 30 May 2025). While these figures are often presented as "losses", it is understood that they encompass all categories of casualties, not solely fatalities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for instance, claimed in February 2025 that Moscow had lost around 250,000 soldiers killed, and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024 alone, including 150,000 killed in action. These higher Ukrainian figures likely include a significant proportion of wounded, or they represent a maximalist estimate designed to highlight the human cost of the war for Russia.

Western intelligence agencies, primarily from the United States and the United Kingdom, offer estimates that generally fall between the confirmed figures of independent media and the higher claims of the Ukrainian government. For instance US officials in late 2023 estimated that Russian military casualties were approaching 300,000, including as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 further injured troops. These assessments are typically based on a combination of satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media analysis and official reporting, although specific methods are rarely disclosed publicly.

The Russian government, on the other hand, provides very little information on its casualties, having last publicly released figures in September 2022, claiming only 5,937 deaths. This deliberate obfuscation is a clear attempt to control the narrative and minimize public discontent over military losses.

Estimating the Most Likely Accurate Figure

Given the available information, the estimates provided by Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service are most likely to be the most accurate reflection of confirmed Russian fatalities, with a strong indication that the actual number of killed soldiers is significantly higher. Their meticulous methods of cross-referencing public sources provides a verifiable baseline, even if it cannot capture every death. Their estimates for total fatalities (around 165,000 to 237,000 as of early to mid-2025) seem plausible when considering the intensity and duration of the conflict.

Ukrainian figures, while valuable for understanding the overall scale of "losses" (including injuries), are generally considered to be inflated for propaganda purposes, encompassing not just killed but also severely wounded, captured and missing personnel. While the high numbers reflect the brutal reality of the fighting, it is crucial to distinguish between total casualties and fatalities. Western intelligence estimates, often informed by classified sources, tend to corroborate the general range of the independent media's extrapolated figures for fatalities while also providing insights into the wounded.

The reason the BBC/Mediazona figures, and the higher estimates derived from their work, are most likely accurate is their commitment to verifiable, open source methodology. They are not beholden to either side's political agenda and have a track record of rigorous data collection. While even their extrapolated figures are estimates, they are grounded in concrete, identified cases, which lends them significant credibility. The grim reality is that the actual number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine is undoubtedly a devastating figure, likely falling within the upper range of the independent media's projections, signifying a profound human cost for Moscow's unprovoked aggression.

To place the matter in context, in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan between 1979 and 1989, approximately 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed and another 35,000 soldiers were wounded.

---

The General

By Friedrich Sassoon

(a British World War I poet)

“Good-morning, good-morning!” the General said

When we met him last week on our way to the line.

Now the soldiers he smiled at are most of 'em dead,

And we're cursing his staff for incompetent swine.

“He's a cheery old card,” grunted Harry to Jack

As they slogged up to Arras with rifle and pack.

But he did for them both by his plan of attack.