Canada’s Military Reforms in the Age of NATO’s 5% Doctrine
- Matthew Parish
- Jul 9
- 5 min read
Canada, long a reliable but underperforming member of NATO, is now facing a profound reckoning. For decades, successive governments in Ottawa have underfunded and under-prioritised the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), confident that geography, American protection and peacekeeping prestige would suffice in a post-Cold War world. But Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, coupled with rising tensions in the Arctic and Indo-Pacific, has upended that complacency.
In response, NATO has begun a dramatic strategic realignment, with frontline states demanding that all members meet not only the longstanding 2% of GDP defence spending benchmark, but move towards a more ambitious 5% commitment — an informal but publicly documented consensus between all NATO member states. This is an increasingly urgent expectation in light of an extended war in Europe and growing threats in Asia. For Canada, this demand represents more than a budgetary challenge. It necessitates a comprehensive transformation of her armed forces, doctrine, procurement processes, and geopolitical posture. The modernisation of the CAF is no longer a theoretical aspiration. It is an existential imperative.
The Current State of the Canadian Armed Forces
The CAF is composed of approximately 68,000 regular personnel and 27,000 reservists, spread across the Army, Navy, and Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF). By most NATO standards, these numbers are insufficient. The force is under-recruited, overstretched, and often dependent on outdated equipment. A shortage of skilled personnel, coupled with institutional bottlenecks in procurement, has left critical gaps across every domain of warfighting.
The Army operates mostly legacy equipment, including the LAV III armoured vehicle and M777 howitzers. Infantry units suffer from poor retention and recruitment shortfalls.
The Navy maintains 12 Halifax-class frigates and 4 ageing Victoria-class submarines. Canada lacks a modern amphibious capability and has no ability to project naval power beyond coastal waters without American support.
The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) flies a fleet of CF-18 Hornets first introduced in the early 1980s. Delays in replacing them with the American F-35 stealth fighter have hampered Canada’s ability to contribute meaningfully to air policing, air superiority and long-range strike operations.
These deficiencies are well known in Ottawa. But the scale of correction required under the new NATO expectation is unprecedented.
From 1.4% to 5%: The Budgetary Leap
Canada currently spends around 1.4% of GDP on defence — well below even the original 2% NATO benchmark. Reaching 5% of GDP would require a tripling of annual defence spending, from approximately C$30 billion to over C$100 billion. This figure would place Canada among the top five military spenders in the world, transforming her from a middling contributor to a central pillar of NATO.
Although politically contentious, there are signs of a shift in elite consensus. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, under pressure from both the United States and the principal opposition party, has signalled openness to a multi-year increase. Defence Minister David McGuinty has committed to rearmament, and has acknowledged that Canada must prepare for a return to great-power confrontation.
Structural Reform and the Industrial Base
Canada’s military problem is not just financial. It is structural. Defence procurement is notoriously slow, over-regulated, and paralysed by bureaucratic inertia. A shift to 5% spending must be matched by procurement reform, empowering military leadership to expedite decisions and streamline supply chains.
The country’s defence industrial base is also modest by NATO standards. Canada produces small arms, some aerospace components, and naval systems, but lacks the domestic capacity to produce tanks, missiles, drones or large-scale artillery. Scaling this sector would require massive investment, foreign partnership (especially with the US and Europe), and workforce development.
Yet Canada’s industrial potential is significant. The country has vast natural resources, a highly educated workforce, and access to world-class aerospace expertise. Under a properly managed defence industrial policy, Canada could become a key supplier of critical systems — from Arctic-capable vessels to naval patrol craft to cyber defence software.
Personnel and Training: A Modern Force for a Modern Threat
One of the most acute challenges is human capital. The CAF is currently operating thousands of soldiers below strength. Low pay, housing shortages, and a cultural disconnect between military and civilian life have all contributed to poor recruitment.
To grow the military by 50% or more, Canada must rethink not only recruitment but retention. This means:
Raising pay scales for enlisted personnel
Investing in housing and family support
Expanding university and trade school partnerships for military careers
Reforming reserve service to better integrate civilians with critical technical skills
In parallel, joint training operations with NATO allies — particularly Poland, Germany and the Baltic States — are being expanded to rebuild combat proficiency. Canada is also investing in winter warfare and Arctic operations training, where she has unique geographic and environmental advantages.
The Arctic Theatre and Strategic Geography
Canada’s geographic position is increasingly central to NATO’s global posture. The Arctic, once marginal, is now an emerging front in the contest between NATO and Russia. Melting ice is opening new sea lanes, and Russia is rapidly militarising her Arctic north.
Canada’s ability to project sovereignty in the High North is limited. Many of her Arctic bases are underdeveloped, and she has only a handful of icebreakers. To meet NATO expectations, Canada must:
Expand NORAD cooperation with the United States (North American Aerospace Defense Command (a joint US-Canadian military command responsible for aerospace warning, aerospace control, and maritime warning for North America)
Build new military airstrips and radar installations in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories
Develop Arctic-ready naval and aerial platforms
Ensure rapid mobility of ground forces into the northern provinces and territories
This Arctic dimension also intersects with indigenous policy, as much of the Canadian North is populated by First Nations communities. Any expansion of military infrastructure must come with meaningful consultation and investment in local development.
A Renewed NATO Role and Global Posture
If Canada meets the 5% benchmark, her influence within NATO will grow significantly. She will be expected to lead:
A permanent brigade in Eastern Europe, likely in Latvia or Romania
Joint expeditionary operations with France, the United Kingdom, or the United States
Cyber defence leadership, building on her intelligence-sharing role in the Five Eyes network
Contributions to Indo-Pacific maritime security, including joint patrols with Australia and Japan
This transformation will place Canada at the centre of global military diplomacy for the first time since the Korean War. But it also requires a mental shift in Canadian political culture — away from peacekeeping nostalgia and towards strategic realism.
From Reliant to Reliable
Canada’s journey to becoming a credible modern military power is no longer optional. NATO’s shift from symbolic targets to real capabilities demands nothing less than a full-scale national rearmament. The war in Ukraine, the militarisation of the Arctic, and the rise of China have all conspired to make defence a central issue for Canadian sovereignty, economy and diplomacy.
Whether Canada embraces this challenge will determine not only her standing in NATO but her place in a world where peace is no longer assumed, and where power — economic, military, and moral — must be earned anew.
