Calculating Ukraine's territorial losses: an analytical approach

Analyzing Ukraine's Territorial Losses and Gains Since the Second Russian Invasion

Since the outset of of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict has dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. This article will approximate the proportion of territory lost by Ukraine since the invasion, taking into account prior territorial losses to Russia, and assess the human costs in terms of soldiers lost per square meter of territory gained by Russia.

Before the events of February 2022, Ukraine had already lost significant territories to Russia:

1. Crimea: Annexed by Russia in 2014, Crimea constitutes approximately 27,000 square kilometers (10,000 square miles).

2. Donetsk and Luhansk The ongoing conflict from 2014 facilitated the establishment of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). At that time, these regions combined accounted for around 30,000 square kilometers (11,500 square miles).

In total, before the 2022 invasion, Ukraine had lost around 57,000 square kilometers of its territory, approximately 9.3% of Ukraine’s total area of about 603,000 square kilometers (233,000 square miles).

From February 2022 through 2024, the losses for Ukraine in the current war have been grave but complex to calculate, as battlefield lines have constantly shifted. Estimates suggest Ukraine lost around 15% of its territory during the height of Russian aggressions from 2022 to early 2024. Thus, if we consider approximately 90,000 square kilometers lost since the outset of the invasion—including the territories in the DPR and LPR—this raises the total loss to around 147,000 square kilometers or approximately 24.4% of Ukraine's total territory.

Despite an anticipated counteroffensive and the shifting tides of war, any territorial losses or gains by Ukrainian forces during the 2024-25 period have been minuscule relative to their overall landmass. Many analysts indicate that territorial recapture has been limited to a few thousand square kilometers—close to 3,000–5,000 square kilometers, predominantly around areas of intense skirmishing such as Avdiivka and close to Bakhmut. Hence Ukraine’s overall territorial recoveries have yielded little change in the grand scheme.

To fully grasp the toll of the conflict, we must delve into the human costs associated with military actions. Estimates from various reports suggest that Russian military sorties, in their efforts to gain ground in Ukraine, have come at an extraordinary cost. Reports have indicated that as of mid-2024, Russia may have lost approximately 300,000 soldiers, while Ukrainian forces have sustained over 100,000 confirmed military deaths.

If we consider these numbers in terms of territory gained during the Russian offensive, the example of the 2022-2023 campaign can serve as an illustration. Let’s say Russia gained around 100,000 square kilometres, leading to an estimated loss of 3 Russian soldiers per square metre of territory acquired. This stark statistic underscores the sheer human cost of territorial advances. On the Ukrainian side, similar calculations yield that for every square meter of territory defended, the losses remain significant but carry a different ratio due to the use of defensive strategies leading to attrition.

When evaluating these figures against other modern conflicts, such as the U.S.-Iraq War or the Syrian Civil War, sharp discrepancies emerge. In Iraq, the U.S.-led Coalition suffered around 4,500 military casualties over several years with a net gain of territorial control. In contrast, the high casualties reported in Ukraine's conflict signify a new precedent for how territorial integrity is defended amid intense militarization and precision of modern warfare.

The ongoing war in Ukraine highlights the dramatic complexities and heavy costs associated with national sovereignty. As of early 2024, Ukraine has lost around 24.4% of its territory since the second invasion began, coupled with an abhorrently high loss of life on both sides. The limited territorial gains, juxtaposed against intense military expenditures, present a stark reminder of the human and geopolitical consequences of territorial conflicts. The implications for Ukraine and regional stability remain precarious, warranting continued attention to the situation and its effects on both local and international stages.