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Imagining the best: Three plausible scenarios which would allow Ukraine to recover her territory
Wednesday 27 March 2026 It has become something of a habit, in discussions of the war in Ukraine, to dwell upon attrition, stalemate and exhaustion. Analysts speak of manpower deficits, of ammunition imbalances, of the slow grind of positional warfare across the steppe. Such observations are not misplaced. Yet they risk obscuring a more fundamental truth about war — that its outcomes are rarely linear, and that sudden shifts in political will, technological application or str
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The children of a long war: Ukraine’s alienated youth
Thursday 26 March 2026 There is a quiet transformation taking place in Ukraine — less visible than the movement of front lines, yet no less consequential for the future of the state. A generation of children is ageing into war. They have no memory of peace, only of sirens, displacement and the long shadow of uncertainty. In their habits, their aspirations and their silences, one sees the emergence of something Ukraine has feared since 2014 — a lost generation. The evidence is
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Russia's oil export crisis
Thursday 26 March 2026 The contemporary oil market finds itself in a paradox—prices surge to levels that, in any ordinary geopolitical cycle, would deliver windfall profits to major exporters; yet one of the world’s largest exporters, Russia, is simultaneously experiencing one of the most severe contractions in her export capacity in modern history. This contradiction lies at the heart of the present moment. To understand it requires disentangling three overlapping phenomena:
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Eastern Ukraine Spring Roads Update
Wednesday 25 March 2026 In the spring of 2026 the roads of eastern Ukraine form a paradoxical network — at once the arteries of a functioning state and the exposed nerves of a battlefield. They are no longer merely conduits for civilian life or commercial exchange. They are military corridors, evacuation routes, targets, and, increasingly, psychological spaces in which sound itself has become a weapon. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s road system was already fragile
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US Ground Invasion of Iran: Error
Wednesday 25 March 2026 The temptation to escalate is the oldest reflex in war. When air power appears decisive yet incomplete, when adversaries refuse to yield, and when domestic politics demand demonstrable victory, strategists begin to look to the ground. There, they imagine, lies the finality that bombing cannot achieve. Yet in the case of Iran, such reasoning would represent not resolve but misjudgement of the highest order. A United States ground invasion of Iran would
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Viktor Orbán and the betrayal of Europe
Wednesday 25 March 2026 The quiet betrayal of alliances is rarely announced with fanfare. It occurs instead in whispers, in the passing of documents, in the subtle shifting of loyalties beneath the veneer of diplomacy. In recent months, allegations that the administration of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has permitted or facilitated the transfer of sensitive European information to Moscow have shaken the already fragile architecture of trust within the European Union.
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