Ukraine Theatre: Combat Operations Update June to early July 2025

Russian Summer Offensive Gains Ground in Sumy & Donetsk

• Sumy Oblast incursions: Russian forces resumed major cross-border operations in early June, capturing key villages like Kostiantynivka (not the city of the same name in Donetsk, which remains under Ukrainian control), Varachyne, Yablunivka, and Novomykylaivka, coming within ~20 km of Sumy city. These strategical moves threaten Ukrainian logistics and open opportunities for envelopment via FPV drones and artillery strikes.

  
  

• Pokrovsk–Toretsk axis pressure: Since late June, Russian assaults—utilising small tactical teams on bikes and ATVs—have focused on Malynivka, Novoserhiivka, and Zaporizhzia settlements. Their goal is to disrupt Ukrainian supply corridors along the M‑30 highway through Donetsk near Pokrovsk (which remains stubbornly under Ukrainian control despite massive Russian efforts over years to take the city).

Drone Warfare & Deep Strikes

• Ukrainian drone campaigns backed by increased interceptor development: In June, Ukraine launched deep strikes using drones against Russian infrastructure—airfields (e.g. Klintsy, Rylsk), Shahed drone factories, and an electromechanical plant in Izhevsk (~800 – 1,300 km into Russia), resulting in damage and casualties.

  
  

• Russian drone & missile bombardments: Russia responded with escalating assaults—June saw a record 5,438 drone strikes, peaking in multi-wave attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and other cities. Notable civilian tolls have included:

  
  

  • 10 June: strikes on Kyiv and Odesa maternity hospital.

  • 17 June: over 400 munitions on Kyiv—28 killed, 134 wounded.

  • 24 June: Dnipro hit—21 killed, 279 injured, targeting schools, hospitals, cultural sites.

  
  

Ukrainian Counterstrikes & Tactical Defence

• Key village recaptures: Ukrainian forces regained Andriivka near Sumy (April–June counteroffensive), strengthened the line near Kupiansk, and infiltrated Russian rear areas to destroy a fuel train in Zaporizhzhia.

  
  

• Training site hit: On 1 June, a Russian Iskander missile struck a Ukrainian training centre near Cherkasy (southeast of Kyiv), killing 12 soldiers and prompting command shakeups.

Civilian Harm & Humanitarian Impact

• Worsening civilian toll: UN reports highlight sharp increases in civilian casualties and rights violations tied to Russian drone and missile bombardments during June.

  
  

• Major city suffering: Besides the attacks on Kyiv and eastern cities, strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv have injured civilians—including children—with residential structures and critical infrastructure heavily damaged.

Frontline Overview – Early July 2025

Northern Front (Sumy & Kharkiv)

• Near Sumy: Russian forces sit 20 km from Sumy, entrenched across captured villages and using drones to shell the city and its supply routes.

  
  

• Kharkiv region: Ukrainian defences held off Russian advances; Kharkiv saw intermittent Russian drone strikes, but no major territorial shifts.

Eastern Front (Donetsk & Luhansk)

• Donetsk axis: Russian forces aim to interdict the M‑30 supply corridor running north-south through free Ukrainian territory, securing footholds in frontline villages east and south of Pokrovsk. Despite heavy combat and drone interference, Ukrainian positions remain strong.

  
  

• Luhansk region: Russia claims full control, although Ukraine continues striking Russian military positions within Luhansk and into Crimea using drones.

Southern Front (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa)

• Zaporizhzhia & Kherson: Ongoing low-level clashes and Russian attempts to seize outskirts. Both regions have endured civilian drone and missile hits without major advances.

  
  

• Odesa: On 2 July, Russia struck residential Odesa, injuring children and destroying dozens of apartments, underscoring the civilian toll on southern front areas.

Current Status & Outlook – July 2025

• Frontlines remain largely static, with Sumy region under increasing pressure, and Donetsk’s Pokrovsk corridor (running Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk-Dnipro) remaining highly contested.

  
  

• Drone warfare has entered a new phase: mass saturation strikes by Russia have been met with deep Ukrainian retaliatory strikes on Russian military assets—across both kinetic (missile / drone production sites) and strategic (energy infrastrucutre / bomber) layers.

  
  

• Ukrainian civilian infrastructure continues to absorb heavy damage; schools, hospitals, cultural landmarks and residences remain prime targets.

  
  

• Diplomatic efforts, including US–Ukraine cooperation on air defence and summits by EU leaders, are underway to alleviate security gaps and reduce Ukrainian civilian suffering.

Summary

June 2025 saw both sides harden their operational methods: Russia pressed through village captures and drone saturation tactics on civilian areas, while Ukraine maintained resilience via local counterattacks, drone-enabled deep strikes on military targets, and robust air defence. Ukrainian civilian areas have remained tragically vulnerable. As July begins, the war settles into a gruelling equilibrium — with the conflict defined by controlling key villages, cutting supply lines, and conducting asymmetric aerial assaults. The looming question for early July lies in whether new arms support and evolving drone technology will break this deadlock—or if the front lines will remain largely unchanged.