In late November 2024, as temperatures were dropping and the summer fighting season was coming to an end, a small team undertook a mission starting in Kharkiv and ending in Mykolaiv, to study the conditions on the front line and the extent of Russian advances much touted in the press over the summer of 2024. None of the destinations visited were new; they had previously been visited earlier in 2024 or in 2023. The goal was to assess how the situation has changed, in objective terms. The various military enclaves / exclaves of Kursk and Vovchansk were not visited, as these locations are too dangerous for regular civilian or media visits at the current time. Foreigners found in Ukraine-occupied Russian Kursk oblast are liable to be placed on Russian arrest lists, with potential INTERPOL consequences, and while this mission was underway a British member of the International Legion of Ukraine was detained in Kursk oblast as has been widely reported. That British citizen remains in Russian custody as a prisoner of war at the time of writing.
What follows is a resume of the conditions along the front line as this fact-finding mission found them.
The situation in Kharkiv is stable, despite the city’s being close to the Russian border. The city operates relatively normally although it is subject to Russian missile and drone attacks every few days. The targets of these Russian attacks seem to be arbitrary but it is not clear whether the Russians have any military objectives in continuing to attack Kharkiv, or whether the attacks upon the city are merely aimed at creating civilian terror, which of course would be a war crime. Given the accuracy of modern weapons, it is difficult to conceive that the Russians do not know what they are firing at and therefore Russian tactics in terrorising the population of Kharkiv seem to be most malign. Nonetheless the population of the city that remains (many people fled at the beginning of the war when it appeared possible that Russia would attempt to occupy Kharkiv) and they go about their everyday business notwithstanding the periodic attacks upon the city. Kharkiv remains tolerably safe to travel to and transport connections are functional, although there are problems with electricity supply from time to time.
In Kupiansk, on the Zero Line to the east of Kharkiv, the situation is less stable than it used to be. The team went right up to the river on the Zero Line in Kupiansk with Russian positions opposite, and were warned by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat before the Russians saw them and sent in artillery or drones. FPV drones (the sort of anti-personnel kamikaze drones that involve taking a small civilian drone and attaching explosives to it) are difficult to use in the increasing winds and fog that saturates the area in late November, so these are less of a danger. Nevertheless the sounds of fighting just a few kilometres outside the city, particularly in the woods to the north of the city, can be constantly heard, and it has been reported that the Russians are making gradual advances. However it seems unlikely that there can be a breakthrough in the Kupiansk region in the immediate future, given the poor weather conditions. The road south from Kupiansk to Izium is not passable, as it has been partially occupied by the Russians where it crosses the river.
Izium and Sloviansk, the cities to the south of Kharkiv and close to the front line in the Donbas region - both previously occupied by the Russians who were driven out - seem relatively quiet. However we have heard reports of Ukrainian positions being slowly driven back to the east of Izium, and we understand that casualty rates in that region are high. Hence the apparent sense of calm in those cities is belied by the fact that fighting is taking place not far from them where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering. Both cities remain in conditions of devastation, with very heavy levels of damage to buildings (perhaps 70%+). Sloviansk remains an oasis of relative calm, with a handful of restaurants and other facilities operating as it stands just outside the accurate range of Russian artillery - apparently.
Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka, just to the south of Sloviansk, and relatively calm but Kramatorsk came under artillery fire while this team was in the city and artillery attacks and air raid sirens are constant. The city feels calm but tense. The international NGO community has mostly but not entirely disappeared from Kramatorsk, as there is a sense that it is currently a dangerous place to be, not least due to Russian stated ambitions to occupy the entirety of the Donbas region and an apparent attempt to encircle Kramatorsk (although this seems to have fallen rather flat given their limited advances on the battlefield and at great human cost). Life is tolerable in Kramatorsk although the civilian population is understandably unnerved by the constant shelling in close proximity.
To the south of Druzhkivka, the city of Kostyantynivka is under heavy, constant attack and the levels of building damage are substantially higher than in Sloviansk and Izium. It is unsafe to go out doors there due to the constant threat of FPV drones and the city is within accurate Russian artillery range. The city has been militarised and civilians have been urged to evacuate. In all these cities, a number of civilians remain but typically they are the elderly and those with nowhere else to go. Kostyantynivka remains extremely dangerous and a visit is inadvisable.
The same is true of Pokrovsk, the next city south of Kostyantynivka in the Donbas region, where the Russians have tried repeatedly to push through Ukrainian lines and thereby cut off the principal logistical supply route of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that runs from Kharkiv to Dnipro via the cities named. However the Ukrainian Armed Forces retain control of Pokrovsk, and when this observation team passed close to the Pokrovsk region the area seemed relatively quiet. The Russian Armed Forces are by all accounts a few kilometres out of town but their attempts to seize Pokrovsk during the summer fighting season of 2024 have failed and it is unlikely that they will be able to push through any further. Moreover there are multiple other roads behind the front line that can be used as logistical supply routes, to divert around Pokrovsk. While these roads are not always in good condition they suffice for the purposes of resupply of the front line positions and the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain the area in orderly control.
While this team was on mission, the city of Dnipro, just behind the front line, was hit with a novel Russian hypersonic missile with multiple re-entry vehicles, striking various locations around the city one morning. This seems not to have troubled either the Ukrainian Armed Forces or the people of Dnipro, who continue to go about their daily business in an orderly fashion. Dnipro remains fairly vibrant and it is a tolerably safe place to visit.
South of Dnipro, the city of Zaporizhzhia is under more sustained attack, with a hot front line of combat taking place just to the east of the city. The city is frequently attacked by drones and missiles but it is outside the range of accurate artillery fire. However leaving the city for the east or the south is not straightforward because that places you within accurate Russian artillery range and the roads have been virtually destroyed through war damage including the movements of heavily vehicular traffic and also explosions on the roads that have destroyed their consistency. Despite Zaporizhzhia living under constant bombardment, with consequent electricity and power outages, a substantial civilian population remains there, most resilient, and getting on with their daily lives. There we discovered a significant NGO presence that carries on operating despite the heavy attacks upon the city that took place over the summer fighting season. Again the weather makes the effective use of FPV drones (the greatest danger on the front line) difficult in November, and this is likely to continue as the winter fighting season progresses.
The direct route southwest from Zaporizhzhia to Kherson via Nikopol remains for the most part impassable, passing right along the front line, due to the poor quality of the roads. Instead a significant diversion is necessary to reach Mykolaiv, the supply city for the front line in Kherson which is a short distance to the southeast of Mykolaiv.
In Kherson itself, the Russian positions are just over the river and the city is constantly under air raid alerts. There is a constant danger of FPV drones in Kherson, which are used to terrorise the population of Kherson but for the most part Kherson is much quieter than on previous visits. Casual travel to Kherson is inadvisable but the city, now with 90%+ building damage, has been emptied out following military orders for civilian evacuation. It is like walking through a ghost city; only a handful of retail and hospitality establishments remain open and the city effectively closes at 5pm and it is entirely dark during nighttime hours. However this team was able to travel safely if briefly to Kherson.
In conclusion, the front line has frozen, as befits the weather and as the Russians turn to their wintertime tactics of demoralising the civilian population of Ukraine with attacks on energy infrastructure across the country and not just on the front line. We experienced minimal power outages on the front line positions we visited but we were alarmed by reports of high casualty rates and the limited medical facilities to assist the wounded. The West now obviously needs to put in the maximum support for the Ukrainian front line over the winter season before heavy infantry fighting resumes along this extended front line of some 1,000 kilometres in early March. As the weather gives rise to a relative lull in the fighting, domestic efforts should be focused on keeping soldiers warm in wintery conditions and also in supply of medical facilities to assist the injured.