Turkey's evolving role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

During Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine, diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Turkey have evolved significantly, marked by Turkey’s multifaceted support for Ukraine and her complex interactions with Russia.

Turkey’s Support for Ukraine

Turkey has demonstrated consistent support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In July 2023, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan asserted that “there is no doubt that Ukraine deserves membership of NATO,” underscoring Turkey’s endorsement of Ukraine’s integration into Western defence structures. 

Beyond political backing, Turkey has provided substantial military assistance to Ukraine. Since 2019, Turkey has supplied Bayraktar drones, which have played a significant role in Ukraine’s defence efforts. Additionally in February 2020, Presidents Erdoğan and Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed an agreement on military-financial cooperation, with Turkey allocating approximately $36 million for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to procure Turkish military and dual-use goods. 

Mediation Efforts and the Black Sea Grain Deal

Turkey has actively engaged in mediating between Ukraine and Russia. On 3 February 2022, before the second Russian invasion of Ukraine began but was becoming increasingly obvious as imminent, President Erdoğan offered to host a Ukraine-Russia conference to de-escalate tensions. This diplomatic initiative failed in its immediate goals (Russia did indeed invade Ukraine notwithstanding this initiative) but it did culminate in the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 22 July 2022, where Turkey and the United Nations brokered a deal allowing the safe export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

However Russia suspended her participation in October 2022 following alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on her Black Sea fleet, and rescinded the agreement completely in 2023, alleging that the relaxation of western banking sanctions permitting the financing of Russian agricultural exports had not been fully implemented. It is probably safe to say that Turkey was unimpressed.

Control of the Bosphorus Strait

In response to the conflict, Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention, which grants her authority over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. On 27 February 2022, Turkey announced the closure of these waterways to military vessels, aiming to prevent further escalation of the conflict into a naval war between the West and Russia. This move effectively restricted the passage of Russian warships between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, paralysing the Russian navy. 

Evolving Turkish-Russian Relations

Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian civil war, starting in 2011, initially aligned her with Russia to support the Russian-backed Assad regime against various factions, such as the Kurds and the Islamic State, that Turkey perceived as a threat to her interests in Syria and that created an enormous refugee problem for Turkey, particularly along her Syrian border. It is rumoured that in 2016 Vladimir Putin, on the basis of intelligence received through Russia's sophisticated global intelligence apparatus, tipped off the Turkish President over the imminence of the coup attempt against his rule, apparently led by Gülen movement of Fethullah Gülen, an Islamic scholar and businessman based in Pennsylvania.

However as Turkish-backed rebels gained control over significant portions of Syria in December 2024, displacing President Bashar al-Assad, who reportedly fled to Moscow, Turkish-Russian relations have become strained. This geopolitical shift has influenced Turkey’s stance on the Ukraine conflict, leading to increased support for Ukraine and more cautious engagement with Russia as their geopolitical interests in the Middle East are no longer aligned. Nevertheless Turkey maintains cordial relations with Iran, Russia's ally and America's enemy, and Turkey no longer coordinates in military affairs with Israel, America's ally, so Turkey's situation in the geopolitics of the Middle East is complex.

Participation in Peacekeeping Efforts

Turkey has expressed support for US-led mediation efforts between Ukraine and Russia in Saudi Arabia. Despite potential divergences with the US regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership, Turkey has shown willingness to contribute to peacekeeping operations. As NATO’s second-largest member state, Turkey could deploy a significant contingent as part of a “coalition of the willing” spearheaded by British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to monitor any ceasefire agreement. While US Special Envoy Mike Witkoff has expressed reservations about this plan, Ukraine retains the option to invite international forces onto her territory, including Turkish troops, under a “status of forces” agreement, independent of the Riyadh negotiations’ outcomes.

Turkey’s NATO Membership and Strategic Interests

Turkey joined NATO in 1952, motivated by security concerns about the Soviet Union. Although she no longer shares a direct border with Russia, Turkey’s strategic interests remain closely tied to European stability. As an EU candidate member state, Turkey values her commercial and economic relationships with Europe, which often outweigh her ties with Russia. This economic orientation, coupled with her control over the Black Sea’s access points, positions Turkey as a pivotal player in negotiating a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine. Turkey might well condition her support for a "European" solution to the Ukraine conflict on increased commercial and economic cooperation with Europe.

Conclusion

Turkey’s diplomatic relations with Ukraine during the ongoing conflict reflect a balance between supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty as a matter of principle (disintegrating and conflict-ridden states are not consistent with Turkey's vision for the Middle East), and managing complex interactions with Russia. Through military assistance for Ukraine, mediation efforts, and strategic control of key maritime routes, Turkey has asserted herself as a significant actor in the pursuit of regional stability and the resolution of the Ukraine conflict. It will be difficult to ignore her views and actions, especially as Turkey was formerly a major trader with her near neighbour (across the Black Sea) Ukraine and presumably wishes to return to that position of stability.