Today's meeting of European military leaders: protecting Ukraine

European military leaders from 30 countries are convening today in London to deliberate on several critical European security matters, with a primary focus on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the enhancement of the continent’s defence capabilities. Talks are expected to continue late into the night. Parallel talks are taking place at the European Council in Brussels between political leaders.

Feasibility of a Peacekeeping Operation in Ukraine

A central topic of discussion is the potential deployment of an international peacekeeping force to Ukraine. The United Kingdom and France are spearheading this initiative, proposing a contingent of approximately 10,000 to 30,000 troops to enforce a prospective peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It has been reported in the Ukrainian media that UK special forces have been ordered to prepare to mobilise in Ukraine, and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said that peacekeeping planning in Ukraine has entered the "operational phase". However, the commitment from other nations remains uncertain, and the specifics of the ceasefire are still under negotiation. 

The total number of peacekeepers to effectively secure so long as a front line as Ukraine is more likely to be in the region of 100,000. So there is plenty of work to do.

The feasibility of deploying such a force hinges on several factors:

• Consent from Russia: Russia has explicitly opposed the presence of Western forces in Ukraine, particularly those affiliated with NATO. This stance complicates the deployment of a peacekeeping mission without Russian approval. Russia has threatened to fire on peacekeepers; but would she really do so? This is no doubt more posturing from Russia. In the meantime Russia has deferred further talks with the United States until Monday, showing a further willingness to stretch out a negotiations process and test the resolve of the United States in imposing pressure on them.

In the meantime Russian and Ukrainian fighting continues because the US-brokered ceasefire, in which each side has offered different sorts of ceasefires, has not had any effect on the ground whatsoever.

• Participation of Non-NATO Countries: To mitigate tensions, there is consideration of involving troops from nations perceived as neutral or less provocative by Russia. However, assembling and coordinating such a coalition presents significant challenges, including financial and diplomatic challanges, as well as chain-of-command challenges.

• Operational Risks: Deploying peacekeepers without a robust and enforceable ceasefire could expose forces to active hostilities, raising concerns about their safety and the mission’s overall efficacy. Nevertheless the region just behind the front line in Ukraine is relatively safe, and both civilians and the military deploy there in a tolerably secure environment already. There seems little reason why a European peacekeeping force could not be deployed there unilaterally as an initial unilateral initiative.

• Terms of reference. One plan being touted, which would involve in the region of 20,000 troops (presumably principally from the United Kingdom and France, although others could join later) is a so-called "reassurance force", tentatively named as the "Mulitnational Force Ukraine". This force would presumably be stationed at key locations just behind the front line to deter Russian attacks on infrastructure.

The European Sky Shield Initiative

Another pivotal agenda item is the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), a German-led project aimed at developing an integrated European air and missile defense system. Launched in 2022 in response to heightened security threats, ESSI seeks to bolster Europe’s defensive capabilities against aerial and ballistic missile threats. 

As of February 2025, ESSI has expanded to include 23 European nations, reflecting a broad commitment to collective security. The initiative emphasises the joint procurement of air defence systems, including:

• Short-Range Systems: Skyranger 30 (Switzerland)

• Medium-Range Systems: IRIS-T SLM (Germany, Italy, Greece, Sweden, Norway, Spain)

• Long-Range Systems: MIM-104 Patriot (United States)

• Very Long-Range Systems: Arrow 3 (Israel and United States)

The integration of these systems aims to create a multi-layered defence architecture capable of addressing diverse aerial threats. 

Enhancing European Security and Defence Coordination

The discussions also encompass broader issues pertaining to European security, particularly the need to fortify borders against potential Russian aggression and enhance aerial defense mechanisms. The ESSI represents a significant step toward these objectives by fostering collaboration and resource sharing among participating nations.

A recurring theme in these talks is the necessity for a unified European defence management architecture. Establishing a single chain of command would streamline decision-making processes, improve operational efficiency, and ensure a cohesive response to security threats. Such integration is deemed crucial for the effective deployment of initiatives like ESSI and potential peacekeeping operations. Ukraine's own armed forces, now by far the largest in Europe and larger than those of the United States, can also be trained and incorporated into a European force under a single chain of command.

Support for Ukraine and President Zelensky

The assembly of European military leaders underscores the continent’s steadfast support for Ukraine and its President, Volodymyr Zelensky. In addition to exploring peacekeeping options, there is a concerted effort to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities. The European Union’s foreign policy chief has urged member states to pledge €5 billion for artillery shells to strengthen Ukraine’s position in ongoing peace negotiations. The Finnish Prime Minister has set the ambitious target of Ukraine joining the European Union by 2030 at the latest.

Conclusion

The convergence of European military leaders this week signifies a pivotal moment in addressing the multifaceted security challenges facing the continent. Through deliberations on peacekeeping operations, advancements in air defence systems like the ESSI, and the pursuit of a unified defense strategy, Europe aims to enhance its collective security posture while steadfastly supporting Ukraine in its quest for sovereignty and peace.

There is now a common European understanding that Russia presents the single greatest threat for the European continent and is likely to do so for some time to come. Therefore in the absence of a guaranteed American-led NATO security architecture, as the United States becomes more isolationist in her foreign policies, this integtration of European security and defence forces into a single structure is essential to maintain Europe's collective self-defence against Russia.