The Twenty-Eight Points

The search for a political settlement to the war in Ukraine has given rise to a multitude of unofficial proposals, informal drafts and speculative frameworks. Amongst these, diplomats have occasionally referred to a supposed twenty-eight-point plan that captures the broad contours of where a negotiated end to hostilities might lie if the United States and the Russian Federation were ever to agree upon a basic structure for peace. While no public document of this precise length exists, various fragments, leaks and negotiated principles have accumulated into something resembling a consolidated scheme. An examination of these twenty-eight points reveals both the ambition of such a settlement and the distance still to be traversed before any agreement might be implemented.

1. Immediate cessation of offensive operations

The framework calls for a verifiable freeze in frontline movements, supervised by international monitors.

2. Stabilisation lines based on actual control

Rather than immediate withdrawal, the plan envisages a de facto line of separation roughly corresponding to the contemporary battlefield. This is presented as a temporary measure, not a recognition of sovereignty.

3. Withdrawal of heavy weaponry

Both sides would be required to pull back heavy artillery, rocket systems and armoured vehicles to designated distances from the line of contact.

4. Comprehensive prisoner exchanges

A complete exchange of prisoners of war, detainees and civilians held in filtration facilities is envisaged early in the process.

5. A ban on long-range missile use during the transition

Ukraine would refrain from striking targets deep inside Russia, while Russia would halt missile campaigns against Ukrainian cities.

6. International monitoring mission

A neutral mission under UN auspices, or a specially created multinational observer force, would monitor compliance.

7. Safe corridors for humanitarian access

Obligations to guarantee unimpeded humanitarian access to occupied regions and frontline towns form a core plank.

8. Progressive demilitarisation zones

Specific areas along the front would undergo phased demilitarisation, with weapons storage audited by the monitoring mission.

9. A moratorium on large-scale troop mobilisation

Both parties would agree to avoid large mobilisation waves during the transitional period.

10. Ukrainian commitments to neutrality

One of the most controversial elements is a proposed commitment for Ukraine to remain militarily non-aligned for a defined period, sometimes stated as ten to fifteen years.

11. Security guarantees for Ukraine

In exchange for neutrality, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from a coalition of Western states, possibly modelled on Article 4 mechanisms rather than Article 5 mutual defence.

12. Restrictions on foreign military bases

Ukraine would not host foreign troop formations or missile bases during the transition.

13. Limitations on Russian troop presence

Russia would reduce her troop presence in occupied areas to pre-agreed levels, monitored by the international mission.

14. Negotiated status of occupied territories

The plan defers the ultimate status of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to future negotiations, without recognising their annexation.

15. Special arrangements for Crimea

Crimea would be handled separately, potentially through long-term leasing, demilitarisation, or shared governance of infrastructure such as water and electricity.

16. Restoration of Ukrainian control over her borders

Ukraine would regain supervised control over her international borders, excluding Crimea, late in the process.

17. Economic reconstruction fund

A multinational fund would be established to rebuild infrastructure and stimulate economic recovery.

18. Russian participation in reconstruction

Russia might contribute financially, directly or indirectly, as part of sanctions relief negotiations.

19. Phased sanctions relief

Western sanctions on Russia would be lifted in stages, tied to verified compliance with the peace plan.

20. Unfreezing of Russian sovereign assets

Some frozen Russian assets might be unfrozen or repurposed for reconstruction, subject to political agreement.

21. Energy transit guarantees

Russia and Ukraine would negotiate arrangements for gas and electricity transit, including restoration of pipelines.

22. Protection of minority rights

Both sides would commit to protecting ethnic minorities, including Ukrainians in occupied territories and Russians in Ukraine.

23. Return of deported civilians and children

The plan includes repatriation mechanisms for civilians forcibly transferred to Russia, particularly children.

24. Resumption of Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping

Maritime security guarantees would allow Ukrainian grain exports and commercial shipping to resume without interference.

25. De-mining operations

Large-scale de-mining, supported by international funding and personnel, is envisaged across liberated and occupied territories.

26. Transitional justice mechanisms

An independent body would address war crimes allegations, possibly using hybrid national–international procedures.

27. Political normalisation and elections

Local elections in contested territories would take place only once security conditions allow, under international supervision.

28. A long-term peace treaty

The final point foresees a comprehensive peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia, integrating security guarantees, economic arrangements and territorial provisions into a durable settlement.

Assessment of the Feasibility of the Twenty-Eight Points

Taken as a whole, the twenty-eight-point framework reflects the classical structure of great-power crisis management rather than a fully realised peace settlement. It prioritises the freezing of hostilities, the creation of demilitarised buffers and the management of escalation risks. Yet it also demands that Ukraine accept limitations on her security policy that run counter to her aspirations, while asking Russia to cede de facto control over territories she claims to have annexed. Each side therefore finds elements of the draft intolerable.

For Ukraine, neutrality and the postponement of territorial resolution are particularly difficult to accept, given the scale of devastation she has endured and the political consensus that victory requires restoration of full sovereignty. For Russia, a supervised drawdown of forces and conditional sanctions relief could be viewed as capitulation by domestic hardliners. From Washington’s perspective, however, the appeal of such a framework lies in its ability to reduce the risk of uncontrolled escalation and to stabilise Europe’s security architecture.

In practice, the notional twenty-eight points serve more as a diagnostic tool than a diplomatic blueprint. They reveal where the outer limits of compromise might lie, what incentives would be required to make each stage workable, and how much international machinery would be needed to render any bargain credible. They also demonstrate the ongoing gulf between Ukrainian sovereignty and Russian imperial objectives.