The Riyadh "agreements": four separate statements
- Matthew Parish
- Mar 25
- 5 min read
The recent negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, involving the United States, Ukraine, and Russia culminated in the issuance of four separate statements by the various parties today, 25 March 2025, although it is difficult to find the actual text of any of these statements; different media sources present in Riyadh each give different versions of what each statement says.
Nevertheless these statements outline what is said to be individual agreements (if such agreements have been reached, they have not been released - only highlights, or bullet point summaries of them) between the US and Ukraine and the US and Russia separately, and this highlights the complexities of the diplomatic efforts. Below is a summary of each statement, based on available information.
1. United States’ Statement on Agreements with Ukraine
The US announced that she has brokered an agreement with Ukraine to ensure the safe navigation of commercial vessels in the Black Sea. This arrangement includes measures to eliminate the use of force and prevent the utilisation of commercial ships for military purposes. The agreement aims to revive safe transit via Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, reminiscent of the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative. Additionally, the US has committed to assisting Ukraine in safeguarding her energy infrastructure from further attacks. The two countries (which two countries?) remain committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, release of civilian detainees and return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. (The United States has no power to anything about any of these issues except by applying pressure on Russia.) Finally the US and Ukraine will continue working towards a "durable and lasting peace", and welcome third countries to support the implementation of maritime and energy agreements. It is not clear which maritime or energy agreements are being referred to or what support is welcomed from which third countries.
2. United States’ Statement on Agreements with Russia
In a parallel development, the US has reached an understanding with Russia to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force and prevent use of commercial vessels for military use in the Black Sea; facilitate the restoration of Russia’s agricultural and fertiliser exports to global markets; and, according to one source, enhance access to ports (which ports are being referred to is not clear). This includes efforts to lower maritime insurance costs and improve access to ports and international payment systems for Russian exports. Furthermore both nations have agreed to develop measures aimed at preventing strikes on energy infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia.
3. Ukraine’s Statement on Agreements with the United States
Ukraine has acknowledged the "agreement" facilitated by the US (without saying what it is), emphasising its commitment to ensuring the safe passage of grain and other essential exports through the Black Sea. Ukrainian officials have expressed cautious optimism about the potential revival of export activities but remain vigilant regarding Russia’s adherence to the agreed terms, given past violations of similar agreements, in particular the Black Sea Grain Initiative mediated by Turkey in 2022. Ukraine's Foreign Minister has also said that any movement of Russian military vessels beyond the eastern Black Sea (a term undefined) would be considered a violation of the "spirit" of the agreement (which agreement? With who?). President Zelenskyy is stated that if "the agreement" (which agreement?) is violated by Russia, then he will ask the United States to respond with increased military assistance towards Ukraine and increased sanctions.
4. Russia’s Statement on Agreements with the United States
Russia has expressed openness to reviving agreements that ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, highlighting the importance of protecting her interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasised the need for the US to fulfil her commitments regarding the easing of sanctions on Russian agricultural exports (without saying what those commitments are or when or how they were given). However, Russia says she remains cautious and insists on safeguarding her strategic and economic interests in any renewed agreement. Indeed from Russian observations so far, it is not clear that Russia accepts that any agreement has been reached with anyone.
Comparison and Analysis
While these statements indicate a willingness among the parties to address specific issues, the absence of a joint declaration or a comprehensive, multi-party agreement underscores the challenges inherent in the negotiations. The focus on ending attacks on energy facilities is a notable development, yet it had been imagined that this had already been agreed through US shuttle diplomacy and the practical result was nil. The statements lack clarity in content, and lack clear timelines and enforcement mechanisms, leaving the implementation of all these measures uncertain and indeed whether anything enforceable has been agreed at all.
The inability to produce a unified document signed by all involved parties raises questions about the efficacy of the Riyadh negotiations. Critical issues initially proposed for discussion, such as a complete ceasefire and the protection of power stations, are conspicuously absent from the individual statements. This omission suggests that the negotiations may not have addressed the core conflicts driving the ongoing war.
Enforcement and Future Prospects
The agreement (if there is one) to resume Ukrainian and Russian merchant shipping through the Black Sea presents significant enforcement challenges. Without provisions for protective military escorts from third countries, the safety of commercial vessels remains in question. Shipping companies may be hesitant to operate in the region without clear security guarantees, especially given the potential for renewed attacks or violations of the agreement.
Reflecting on the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was mediated by Turkey, signed by representatives of Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, and witnessed by the United Nations Secretary-General, it is evident that even well-structured agreements with broad international support can falter. The collapse of that initiative shortly after its inception serves as a cautionary tale for the current arrangements.
Conclusion
The coming days will be crucial in determining whether the Riyadh negotiations represent a meaningful step toward resolving the conflict or merely a diplomatic exercise lacking substantive impact. The absence of comprehensive agreements and enforcement mechanisms, coupled with the omission of critical issues from the statements, casts doubt on the potential success of these efforts. Effective diplomacy requires not only the willingness to negotiate but also the establishment of clear, enforceable agreements that address the root causes of conflict.
On Saturday 22 March 2025, US President Trump said "I don't think there is anyone that is going to stop Vladimir Putin except me. And I think I am going to be able to stop him." We shall see whether that is right, when (as one might assume) whatever has been agreed today breaks down or other anticipated talks fail to materialise.