The Reopening of Airports in West Ukraine: Prospects and Challenges

As Ukraine continues to endure the simultaneous pressures of conflict and economic turbulence, discussions around the potential reopening of its western airports—namely Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, and Uzhhorod—are becoming increasingly pertinent. Here we examine the feasibility of reopening these airports amidst ongoing negotiations for security guarantees with Russia, the significant implications of such agreements, and the pragmatic challenges Ukraine faces in reintegrating air travel into her economic and social framework.

Seeking Security Guarantees from Russia

The prospect of negotiating a security guarantee from Russia for civilian aircraft is inherently complex and fraught with geopolitical implications. On one hand, securing a guarantee could facilitate safer operations for civilian airlines, potentially bolstering public confidence in air travel. However, it is important to assess the willingness of the Russian side to provide such assurances without a relaxation of western sanctions against Russian aircraft and Russian airports. The current absence of a complete ceasefire or peace agreement, or even apparent good faith negotiations on the part of Russia towards such results, might render such guarantees unreliable at best.

If Russia were to refuse to provide a security guarantee for civilian aircraft when asked, this would likely exacerbate fears of missile strikes on civilian aircraft, raising significant concerns over the safety of passengers and crew. Ukrainian officials, assisted by western experts, would need to undertake extensive risk assessments to determine whether any measures could adequately mitigate the threat of attacks from ground-based missile systems that could reach these airports. It is not known that such assessments have been undertaken yet, and if not then they should be.

Missile Threat Assessment

In the absence of a comprehensive peace accord, one must consider the capabilities of Russian military assets remaining operational in the area. Russian missiles have demonstrated a range capable of striking urban centres and infrastructure within Ukraine, and while military operations may shift focus, the risk of strikes on civilian aircraft remains a concern. Major airports like Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Uzhhorod are situated within reach of various Russian missile systems. Given the wanton disregard for the laws and principles of war by the Russian Armed Forces so far, it cannot be excluded that they might seek to target civilian aircraft as a form of terror tactics. However they have not done this so far with the civilian transport infrastructure since 2023 (when they attacked Kramatorsk and Kherson railway stations).

Nonetheless, the specific risks to civilian aircraft on approach or taking off depend on multiple factors, including the presence of active air defence systems (which could be installed upon western initiative) and situational awareness on the ground, and pilots' take-off and landing techniques. Reinforced security measures would be paramount, but the uncertain military landscape complicates operational viability and decision-making.

Timeline for Reopening Airports

If political will is indeed found to reopen these airports, the timeline could be expedited significantly. Infrastructure—runways, terminals, and navigational systems—presently exists, but security measures must be enhanced. Given the urgency of resuming air travel, it may take as little as a few weeks to a couple of months to prepare these airports for limited operations, subject to adequate security guarantees and assessment.

However, even starting with limited services is encumbered by economic realities, particularly the fact that a majority of Ukrainian males of fighting age (18-60) are unable to leave the country, reducing the pool of potential travellers. Domestic tourism, business traffic and humanitarian flights could serve as initial catalysts for the resumption of air travel, alongside accommodations for foreign diplomats and international aid.

Nevertheless, even Kabul and Baghdad airports stayed open during the periods of conflict in those countries.

Economic Benefits and Alleviation of Land Border Pressure

Reopening airports could have profound implications for alleviating pressure on Ukraine's currently clogged land borders. These borders, stretched thin by the influx of refugees and humanitarian aid operations, would benefit from the return of organised air travel. Increased air traffic could facilitate the swift movement of goods, personnel, and aid while allowing a greater sense of normality, which is essential for the nation's social fabric.

Even a limited reopening has the potential to ease congestion at border crossings. As travellers opt for quicker, more reliable air routes, it could enhance the efficiency of logistics, trade, and humanitarian endeavours, fostering an atmosphere of recovery. Additionally, commercial airlines might consider flight routes dedicated to cargo operations, thereby bolstering economic resilience.

Conclusion

The reopening of west Ukrainian airports presents a mix of promise and peril. While seeking a security guarantee from Russia poses complex diplomatic challenges and would probably not be forthcoming in the absence of massive American pressure, the potential benefits of resuming operations would significantly contribute to Ukraine's ongoing recovery. Nevertheless the safety of civilian air travel remains paramount, and the means to ensure that safety must be carefully balanced with the realities of the ongoing conflict. Through collaborative efforts at all levels, the onus lies on Ukrainian leadership and its international partners to navigate these turbulent waters and restore a sense of air travel normality to a nation striving for stability and growth.