The race for the White House in 2028: the Republican and Democratic contenders
By Matthew Parish
5 November 2026
The American midterm elections of 3 November 2026 have substantially changed the political environment in which the next presidential election will take place on 7 November 2028. The results have strengthened the position of several prominent Democrats while raising new questions about the future leadership of the Republican Party after Donald Trump.
The scale of the Democratic victory is significant. Democrats have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, secured governorships in traditionally Republican states including Texas and Georgia and retained important battleground governorships. The Associated Press identifies dissatisfaction with the cost of living, the war with Iran and allegations of corruption as central issues in the election.
Three particular consequences matter for 2028.
First, the Republican nomination will involve a debate over how closely the party should remain associated with Trump's political agenda, particularly his foreign policy and economic record. Vice-President JD Vance's position within the administration makes that question especially relevant to him.
Second, the Democrats now have several governors who can point to successful re-election campaigns, including Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Wes Moore in Maryland and JB Pritzker in Illinois. They also have successful senators, notably Jon Ossoff of Georgia, whose re-election has attracted national attention.
Third, the Democratic nomination is unlikely to revolve exclusively around the political figures who contested the 2024 presidential election. Its prospective candidates represent different constituencies, generations and approaches to economic and social policy.
The following are the principal names appearing in contemporary polling and reporting. These are prospective contenders, not declared nominees or a prediction of who will win.
Republican contenders
JD Vance — Vice-President
Vance occupies a central position in the discussion of Republican succession. However, his public response to the midterms has created a notable distinction between his position and Trump's. On 4 November, Vance explicitly blamed the war with Iran for the Republican defeat, even though he had previously defended the administration's conduct of the conflict. He has indicated that he will decide whether to run after the midterms.
Marco Rubio — Secretary of State
Rubio offers a different Republican political tradition, having served as a senator and previously contested the 2016 presidential nomination. His experience in foreign policy distinguishes his career from Vance's. There is an important qualification: Rubio has said he would support Vance rather than challenge him if Vance runs, although his name continues to appear prominently in Republican nomination polling.
Ron DeSantis — Outgoing Governor of Florida
DeSantis contested the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and has been publicly critical of the party's 2026 electoral performance. Following the midterms, he contrasted the Republicans' national losses with their continued success in Florida. His prospective candidacy would bring his record in state government and socially conservative policies into the national debate.
Donald Trump Jr. — Political activist and businessman
Trump Jr. has expressed interest in the presidency and retains a substantial public association with the MAGA movement. His situation differs from the other prospective candidates because he has never held elected office. A candidacy would present Republican primary voters with an unusually direct question about political continuity through the Trump family.
Other Republicans being discussed include Senator Ted Cruz, who has openly considered another presidential campaign, former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Cruz's repeated visits to Iowa are particularly concrete evidence of his interest in national politics.
The Republicans therefore face a question of political direction. Their prospective candidates differ over foreign intervention, the continuing role of Trump's political movement and the degree to which the party should return to more conventional conservative positions.
Democratic contenders
Kamala Harris — Former Vice-President
Harris retains extensive national recognition from the 2024 presidential election and has not excluded another campaign. On 4 November she told the Associated Press that she wants to help determine her party's future direction, irrespective of whether she seeks office. Her potential candidacy raises questions about whether Democrats want continuity with their previous national leadership or a new standard-bearer.
Gavin Newsom — Outgoing Governor of California
Newsom campaigned nationally for Democrats during the midterms and played a significant part in California's redistricting response to Republican initiatives elsewhere. However, he publicly stated in September that he would not run for president if Harris entered the contest. That statement makes Harris's decision an important practical factor in Newsom's own plans.
Josh Shapiro — Governor of Pennsylvania
Shapiro has just secured re-election in Pennsylvania, a closely contested presidential state, while his party also made congressional and state legislative gains. He has established a political action committee and has left open the possibility of a presidential campaign. His record offers Democrats a governor's perspective centred on administration, public services and electoral competition in a swing state.
Jon Ossoff — Senator from Georgia
Ossoff's successful re-election in Georgia on 3 November has brought renewed national attention to him. Nevertheless, he has explicitly said that he has no interest in running for president in 2028 and intends to serve his full Senate term. His name deserves inclusion because of the attention he receives in national polling and reporting, but that statement makes him a more speculative candidate than others considering a bid.
Pete Buttigieg — Former Transportation Secretary
Buttigieg participated in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries and has since served in the federal government. He campaigned for Democrats across more than 20 states in 2026 and has said he is more inclined than not to seek the presidency again. His experience connects federal infrastructure policy, previous campaign organisation and the party's Midwestern electoral constituencies.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Member of Congress
Ocasio-Cortez represents a progressive strand of Democratic politics emphasising economic inequality, healthcare and the costs of living. Her campaigning for Michigan's newly elected Democratic senator Abdul El-Sayed provides a recent example of that influence. She has indicated that she would consider her political future after the midterms, without committing to a presidential campaign.
There is also an important group of Democratic governors and senators whose names continue to circulate in presidential discussions. They include Wes Moore of Maryland, JB Pritzker of Illinois, Andy Beshear, Senator Mark Kelly and Cory Booker. Moore and Pritzker won re-election this week, while the Associated Press reports that Kelly and Beshear have held preliminary conversations with prospective presidential campaign personnel.
What national primary polling tells us
The following figures are RealClearPolling's national averages for prospective primary candidates, using surveys conducted between 19 July and 1 November 2026. They therefore provide an important pre-midterm baseline, not a measurement of opinion after Tuesday's results.
Republican primary polling
Source: RealClearPolling average, 19 July–1 November 2026. Figures are percentages of primary polling respondents.
Selected named contenders; survey choices also included other Republicans.
RealClearPolling
Democratic primary polling
Source: RealClearPolling average, 19 July–1 November 2026. Figures are percentages of primary polling respondents.
Selected named contenders; survey choices also included other Democrats.
RealClearPolling
The polling needs careful interpretation. Familiar politicians often receive substantial support in very early primary surveys even before formally declaring their candidacies, and the Democratic field is especially unsettled. For example, the AtlasIntel survey conducted on 31 October–1 November found different levels of support from the broader polling averages, indicating considerable variation between polls.
The questions that will shape 2028
The midterm results suggest several political divisions that prospective presidential candidates will have to address.
The Republican debate over the Iran war. The relationship between foreign intervention, oil prices and the cost of living has become politically contentious. Vance is now calling for a discussion of the war's electoral consequences, while Trump continues to defend it. That disagreement is likely to be an important part of the Republican debate over foreign policy.
The Democratic choice between continuity and renewal. Harris and Newsom have established national networks, while governors such as Shapiro, Pritzker and Moore can present recent executive records. Ossoff's victory in Georgia adds another example of Democratic electoral success in a state that supported Trump in 2024.
The appeal of different economic messages. Voters' concerns about inflation and living costs were central to the midterms. Democrats and Republicans alike will face demands for concrete proposals on household purchasing power, employment, energy and public spending, not merely positions on Trump himself.
The importance of the Electoral College. The November 2028 election will ultimately depend on state-by-state presidential results, rather than national primary polling or the aggregate midterm vote. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and other competitive states will therefore remain central to how both parties frame their campaigns.
Where matters stand
The available polling and reporting establish a recognisable group of possible presidential candidates on each side. Among Republicans, discussion concentrates on Vance, Rubio, DeSantis and Trump Jr., with other figures testing the political environment. Among Democrats, Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg, Shapiro, Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff attract substantial attention, although their levels of expressed interest differ.
The most important development since 3 November is not simply the identity of these individuals. It is that both parties now face a debate about their political direction, with the Republicans responding to a major electoral defeat and the Democrats deciding how to translate their midterm victories into a programme for national government.
For observers concerned about Ukraine, the foreign-policy commitments of the prospective candidates will be particularly important. The future of American military assistance to Ukraine, relations with NATO, sanctions against Russia and America's engagement in the Middle East will all merit close scrutiny as actual presidential campaigns emerge.
The field is still preliminary. No major contender had formally launched a 2028 campaign in the reporting available as of 5 November, and the impact of the midterm results on nomination polling has yet to be measured.
