The European Council shows its teeth: but can it make any difference?

On Thursday 20 March 2025, the European Council (formally known as the "Consilium") convened in Brussels to deliberate on the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the European Union's (EU) response to Russia's actions. The Consilium is a meeting of the EU's heads of state or appropriate ministers, and is the body within the EU structure that makes the most important policy decisions which guide the work of the European Commission in executing those policies. The meeting culminated in the adoption of document EUCO 11/25, relevant extracts from which appear here, and which underscores the EU's unwavering support for Ukraine and signals a readiness to intensify sanctions against Russia to ensure adherence to international law.

Key Highlights of EUCO 11/25

The European Council's conclusions, as detailed in EUCO 11/25, encompass several critical points:

• Condemnation of Russian Aggression: The Council unequivocally condemns Russia's continued military aggression against Ukraine, emphasising the violation of international law and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

  
  

• Call for Complete Withdrawal: A firm demand is made for Russia to withdraw its military forces from all internationally recognised Ukrainian territories (i.e. Ukraine's de facto pre-2014 borders), underscoring the necessity of restoring Ukraine's full sovereignty.

  
  

• Return of Forcibly Deported Ukrainian Children: The document highlights the pressing issue of Ukrainian children who have been forcibly deported to Russia and Belarus, calling for their immediate and safe return.

  
  

• Preparedness to Escalate Sanctions: The Council expresses its readiness to impose additional sanctions on Russia, aiming to compel compliance with international law and to pressure Moscow into ceasing its aggressive actions.

  
  

Potential Additional Sanctions

In alignment with the stance articulated in EUCO 11/25, the European Union may consider several avenues for augmenting sanctions against Russia:

• Financial Sector Restrictions: Expanding prohibitions on Russian banks' access to international financial systems, further isolating Russia economically.

  
  

• Energy Embargoes: Implementing comprehensive bans on imports of Russian oil, gas, and coal to diminish revenue streams that fund military activities. Amazingly, a number of EU member states still buy Russian-sourced hydrocarbons even during the war, and this needs to be diminished to zero.

  
  

• Technology Export Controls: Restricting exports of advanced technologies to Russia, particularly those that could enhance military capabilities.

  
  

• Asset Freezes and Travel Bans: Targeting additional Russian officials, oligarchs, and entities with asset freezes and travel prohibitions to increase internal pressure on the Kremlin.

  
  

Effectiveness of Enhanced Sanctions

The efficacy of these potential sanctions hinges on several factors:

• Global Coordination: The impact would be significantly amplified if measures are adopted in concert with international partners, ensuring minimal circumvention opportunities.

  
  

• Economic Resilience: Russia's capacity to adapt to sanctions, through alternative markets or domestic substitutions, could mitigate the intended effects.

  
  

• Duration and Enforcement: Sustained and rigorously enforced sanctions are more likely to exert the desired pressure on Russia to alter her policies.

  
  

The Role of the United States in Sanctions Enforcement

A critical factor in the effectiveness of any new EU sanctions against Russia is whether the United States enacts parallel measures. Historically, the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia has been most pronounced when coordinated between the EU and the US. If the United States does not impose similar restrictions, the impact of EU sanctions alone may be limited due to several factors:

• Financial Workarounds: Without US participation, Russian entities could find alternative financial pathways through dollar-based transactions that remain accessible under American regulations.

  
  

• Energy Diversification: The EU's embargo on Russian energy would be far more effective if the US were to place stricter restrictions on global energy trade involving Russian firms, making it harder for Russia to offset European losses through alternative markets.

  
  

• Secondary Sanctions: The US has a history of imposing secondary sanctions on countries and companies that continue to do business with sanctioned entities. Without such measures, Russian firms could still find business opportunities outside of Europe.

  
  

• Technological Gaps: EU technology export restrictions alone may not cripple Russian industries if the US does not impose similar bans. American technology and semiconductor firms play a critical role in limiting Russian access to advanced computing and military equipment.

  
  

Without parallel US action, there is a risk that EU sanctions will have a reduced impact, allowing Russia to mitigate economic pressure through strategic partnerships with non-EU countries. However, if the EU can leverage diplomatic efforts to encourage broader international adoption of sanctions, the effectiveness of these measures could be preserved.

United Kingdom's Potential Alignment

Given the United Kingdom's historical alignment with EU sanctions post-Brexit, it is plausible that the UK would implement analogous measures. The UK's independent sanctioning mechanisms have often mirrored EU actions, reflecting a shared commitment to upholding international norms.

Hungary's Position

While Hungary has previously exhibited reservations regarding sanctions on Russia, it has not obstructed consensus within the EU. Despite differing perspectives, Hungary's adherence to collective decisions suggests that it is unlikely to veto forthcoming sanction packages, maintaining EU unity on this front.

Making further EU sanctions bite

The European Council's meeting on 20 March 2025, as encapsulated in EUCO 11/25, reaffirms the EU's steadfast support for Ukraine and its readiness to escalate sanctions against Russia. The proposed measures aim to uphold international law and pressure Russia into compliance, reflecting the EU's commitment to a rules-based international order. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions may be diminished if the United States does not adopt similar restrictions, making transatlantic cooperation a key factor in determining their success.