Taiwan, BRICS and the Russia–Ukraine War: Intersecting Fault Lines in the Global Order
- Matthew Parish
- 8 minutes ago
- 5 min read
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered tectonic shifts in the global geopolitical landscape. Among the more complex intersections are those between the conflict in Eastern Europe, the status of Taiwan in East Asia, and the emergence of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—and now BRICS+) as a bloc seeking to challenge the Western-led liberal order. While seemingly disparate, these issues are deeply interwoven by questions of sovereignty, multipolarity and the legitimacy of power projection. Here we examine how the war in Ukraine reverberates through the Taiwan Strait and the BRICS platform, revealing fractures and realignments in global politics.
Taiwan: Watching Ukraine with Unease
The war in Ukraine has deeply influenced Taiwanese strategic thinking, especially in her fears of potential Chinese aggression. Both Taiwanese society and the international community have drawn parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan as smaller democracies facing existential threats from larger, authoritarian neighbours with revanchist ambitions. While the analogy is not perfect—given Taiwan’s strategic location, US security commitments and global semiconductor dominance—it has intensified debates around deterrence and resilience.
Key Parallels
Military Modernisation: Taiwan has accelerated defence reforms, purchasing asymmetric weapons systems, revising conscription laws and preparing for potential island defence in a Ukraine-inspired “porcupine” strategy.
Public Awareness: The war has served as a wake-up call for Taiwanese citizens, sharpening public opinion on national defence and the importance of alliances.
Global Implications: Beijing is closely observing Western responses to Ukraine, including sanctions, arms transfers and diplomatic isolation, to assess how it might be treated in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
The message is clear: Ukraine’s fate informs Taiwan’s security posture, just as China’s ambitions toward Taiwan are informed by the West’s endurance and resolve in Ukraine.
BRICS and the Multipolar Challenge
The war in Ukraine has also invigorated BRICS as a counterweight to Western institutions. Yet the internal contradictions of BRICS—particularly regarding Ukraine and Taiwan—highlight both its ambitions and limits.
a. Russia and China: Strategic Convergence
Russia and China see BRICS as a platform to weaken Western hegemony. For them:
Ukraine symbolises a challenge to NATO and the US-led security order.
Taiwan represents unfinished business in the post-Cold War era and a litmus test for sovereignty norms.
Both states frame their claims in anti-colonial, anti-Western rhetoric, seeking to justify their actions as resistance to US imperialism.
b. India, Brazil, South Africa: Strategic Hedging
Other BRICS members tread carefully:
India has refused to condemn Russia but is wary of China’s ambitions, particularly on the Ladakh border and Indo-Pacific issues.
Brazil under President Lula da Silva advocates for nonalignment, calling for negotiations in Ukraine while maintaining neutrality on Taiwan.
South Africa has hosted naval exercises with Russia and China but insists she is not taking sides.
These differences reveal the tensions within BRICS: while united in criticising Western dominance, the group lacks consensus on sovereignty, territorial integrity and normative values.
c. Expansion and the BRICS+ Moment
In 2023–2024, BRICS admitted new members including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia and the UAE. This expansion signals its growing relevance, but also dilutes cohesion. On Ukraine and Taiwan, most BRICS+ states prefer to avoid open confrontation, emphasizing development, non-intervention and economic ties with both the West and East.
The Broader Strategic Picture
The convergence of these three themes—Ukraine, Taiwan, and BRICS—reflects a global system at a crossroads:
Normative Erosion: The defence of territorial sovereignty in Ukraine is contradicted by the silence (or complicity) of many BRICS states, undermining universal norms and empowering might over right.
Sanctions and Economic Realignments: Sanctions on Russia have strengthened China-Russia trade, and led to increased talk within BRICS of de-dollarisation and alternative financial mechanisms, such as trade in yuan or local currencies.
Authoritarian Solidarity versus Democratic Resilience: The Ukraine war and the Taiwan issue underscore a growing bifurcation: authoritarian regimes defending status quo revisionism versus democracies building new coalitions.
Conclusion: Fault Lines and Futures
The war in Ukraine is not just a regional conflict—it is a litmus test for the future of the global order. Taiwan, though geographically distant, feels its reverberations as it grapples with the prospect of war and international solidarity. BRICS, meanwhile, emerges as a loose but increasingly influential formation questioning Western narratives—without offering coherent alternatives on peace, sovereignty, or justice.
As these three threads intertwine, the world is left grappling with a profound question: can global governance accommodate pluralism without eroding the principles that hold international law and peace together? The answer may lie not just in tanks and treaties, but in the normative choices that states make when faced with the next great crisis.
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Reading List
BRICS and the Multipolar Order
Academic and Policy Sources
Stuenkel, Oliver. The BRICS and the Future of Global Order. Lexington Books, 2015.
– A foundational book on the ideological and geopolitical motivations behind BRICS cooperation.
Rüland, Jürgen. “The Global South and the BRICS: Reflections on the Dynamics of Soft Balancing.” International Politics, 2021.
– Analyses how BRICS states attempt to balance US hegemony without forming a military bloc.
Schweller, Randall. “Opposing the US, Yet Deepening Integration? China, Russia, and the Paradox of the BRICS.” Foreign Policy Analysis, 2020.
Think Tank Reports
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – BRICS Expansion and Its Strategic Implications (2023)
Chatham House – What Is the Future of BRICS+? (2024)
– Discusses BRICS’s internal tensions and geopolitical expansion.
MERICS – China and the BRICS Narrative: Countering the West?
Taiwan, China and Strategic Implications of the Ukraine War
Academic and Strategic Perspectives
Bush, Richard C. Difficult Choices: Taiwan’s Quest for Security and the Good Life. Brookings Institution Press, 2021.
Swaine, Michael D. “The Ukraine War and Taiwan: Lessons for U.S.-China Strategic Competition.” Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 2022.
Mastro, Oriana Skylar. “How China is Learning from the War in Ukraine.” Foreign Affairs, 2023.
Liff, Adam P. “Taiwan, Ukraine, and Deterrence: Drawing the Right Lessons.” Survival, 2023.
Policy and Defense Briefs
RAND Corporation – Could Taiwan Become the Next Ukraine? (2023)
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) – Cross-Strait Deterrence in a Post-Ukraine World(2022–2024 updates)
Lowy Institute – How Taiwan Sees Ukraine—and Vice Versa
Russia’s War in Ukraine and Global Reactions
Academic and Analytical Works
Snyder, Timothy. The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America. Tim Duggan Books, 2018.
– A prescient examination of authoritarianism and Russian revanchism.
Krickovic, Andrej. “The Ukraine Crisis and the Future of Global Order: From the End of the Cold War to the End of ‘The End of History’.” International Affairs, 2022.
Menon, Rajan, and Eugene Rumer. Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post–Cold War Order. MIT Press, 2015.
Think Tank and Policy Resources
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) – Global Reactions to the Ukraine War: The Fragmentation of the World Order
Brookings Institution – How Countries in the Global South View the War in Ukraine
– A comparative analysis of reactions from India, Brazil, South Africa, etc.
International Crisis Group – War in Ukraine: A Global Perspective
Additional Recommended Readings
Books & Monographs
Jones, Bruce, et al. The New Geopolitics: Global Powers and the Changing World Order. Brookings, 2023.
Kendall-Taylor, Andrea, and David Shullman. Rising to the Authoritarian Challenge: Strategic Competition in the 21st Century. CNAS, 2022.
Strategic Commentary
Foreign Affairs – Special Issue on “War and the World Order” (2023)
The Diplomat – Ongoing articles on Taiwan, China, and Global South Perspectives on Ukraine