Slovakia under Fico: balancing the national interest between Europe and Russia

Slovakia’s relationship with Russia under the various tenures of Prime Minister Robert Fico (2006-2010; 2012-2018; 2023- )has been marked by a complex and at times contradictory dynamic. Fico, a seasoned politician who has led Slovakia on multiple occasions, has shifted his political stance considerably from social democrat to conservative) over the years, making his current approach towards Moscow particularly perplexing. Once known for expelling former communist officials from public office, Fico has, in more recent times, cultivated warmer ties with the Russian leadership, raising questions about his motivations and the strategic interests of Slovakia.

During his latest tenure as Prime Minister, Fico met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2024 despite the ongoing second Russian invasion of Ukraine. This meeting was viewed with significant concern by European leaders, given Slovakia’s status as a European Union and NATO member and the comprehensive EU sanctions against Russia to which Slovakia has signed up and renewed. The purpose of the meeting was presumably to try to maintain (cheap) Russian hydrocarbon flows to Slovakia notwithstanding Ukraine's opposition. However despite engagement with Moscow, Fico has consistently voted within the European Council to condemn Russia’s invasion and has supported the strengthening of EU sanctions against Russia. This duality in policy suggests that his actions are driven more by pragmatism than by ideological alignment with Russia.

A critical factor in Slovakia’s approach to Russia has been her historical dependence on Russian natural gas. The Trans-Siberian pipeline, running through Uzhhorod at the Ukrainian-Slovakian border, has historically been a crucial supply route for Slovakia’s energy needs. This dependency was disrupted when Ukraine terminated the contract for the transit of Russian gas in December 2024, leading Slovakia to seek alternative sources of affordable energy. The European Union has since assured Slovakia that other energy options will be available, mitigating the economic pressure that may have previously encouraged Fico’s diplomatic outreach to Moscow.

One of Fico’s most controversial decisions after his most recent election, on 1 October 2023, was the termination of all military aid to Ukraine, though civilian assistance remained unaffected. While insignificant in financial terms (Slovakia is a small country and never contributed much in the way of military aid to Ukraine), this move was widely interpreted as an attempt to maintain favourable economic relations with Russia, particularly in the field of energy supplies. However this decision was met with criticism both domestically and internationally, as it placed Slovakia at odds with other EU and NATO members providing military assistance to Ukraine.

Despite these actions, and despite Fico’s denunciation in the Ukrainian media as a Kremlin puppet, Slovakia's popularity amongst Ukrainians remains relatively stable. Slovak-Ukrainian relations have historically been amicable, and Slovakia has played a role in supporting Ukraine’s EU aspirations. Nevertheless Fico’s oscillating stance on Russia raises concerns about Slovakia’s long-term commitment to the European consensus on opposing Russian aggression.

Looking ahead, Slovakia under Fico’s leadership is likely to continue balancing its EU commitments with pragmatic engagement with Russia. While Slovakia remains an active member of the European Union and NATO, Fico’s actions indicate that he seeks to maintain strategic flexibility, leveraging relationships with both Western allies and Russia to serve Slovakia’s economic and political interests.

Whether this balancing act will be sustainable in the long term remains an open question, particularly as European unity against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine solidifies. The assassination attempt on Fico by a former supporter on 15 May 2024 underscores the domestic volatility surrounding his leadership, as do the continuing street demonstrations in Slovakia against Fico's rule which is perceived by many Slovaks as authoritarian. However it remains to be seen whether this will impact his foreign policy direction. Ultimately, Slovakia's position within the European orbit appears secure, though her approach to Russia will likely remain a subject of scrutiny and debate within the EU and beyond.