Shifts in the New Iron Curtain: Poland, Romania and the Shadow of Russia

The geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe has undergone significant transformations in recent years, marked by shifting alliances, rising nationalism and renewed tensions reminiscent of the Cold War era. Central to this dynamic are Poland and Romania, two nations that have emerged as pivotal players in the region’s security architecture, particularly in response to Russia’s aggressive foreign policy. This has included not just the (second) invasion of Ukraine, Poland's and Romania's neighbours; but also hybrid warfare, including interference with the recent Romanian Presidential election through electronic warfare means but also espionage attempts and suspected terrorism attacks against Polish targets.

Poland’s Political Shift and Its Implications

On 1 June 2025, Poland elected Karol Nawrocki as its new president, a conservative historian backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. This election outcome signifies a notable shift in Poland’s political landscape, potentially impacting her domestic and foreign policies. 

While the Polish presidency is largely ceremonial, the role carries significant influence over foreign policy and defence matters. Nawrocki’s alignment with US President Donald Trump suggests a potential strengthening of Poland-US relations, particularly concerning defense cooperation. 

However, Nawrocki’s victory may also lead to increased tensions with the European Union, given his nationalist stance and scepticism towards further EU integration. His presidency could complicate Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s efforts to implement pro-EU reforms, especially in areas like judicial independence and media freedom. 

There are already reports that the new Polish President is aiming to renegotiate Poland's coalition agreement; but it is not obvious that these domestic political wranglings in Poland will change Poland's foreign policy towards Russia, given her persistent aggressive posture towards Poland since the second Russian invasion of Ukraine and Poland's determination to increase defence spending to protect herself against Russian invasion

Romania’s Strategic Position

Romania, sharing borders with Ukraine and Moldova (that has also recently had a Presidential election, electing a pro-European candidate), has also played a crucial role in the region’s security dynamics. The country has hosted NATO forces and participated in joint military exercises, reinforcing her commitment to collective defence. Romania’s strategic location, with ports on the Black Sea not requiring passage of vessels through the Strait of Bosphorus (which Türkiye controls, and through which she is restricting military vessel movements) makes her a vital ally in countering Russian influence in Eastern Europe.

Despite facing internal political challenges, Romania has maintained a consistent foreign policy orientation towards Euro-Atlantic integration. The country’s leadership has emphasised the importance of a strong NATO presence in the Black Sea region, advocating for increased military cooperation among member states.

The Emerging Divide

The developments in Poland and Romania nevertheless reflect a broader trend of diverging approaches within Eastern Europe about relations with Russia and the West. While both countries have expressed concerns over Russian aggression, their domestic political trajectories inevitably influence how they engage with allies and address security challenges.

Poland’s recent presidential election may lead to a recalibration of its foreign policy, potentially prioritising bilateral ties with the United States (which has stated she remains committed to NATO, provided European countries increase their defence spending) over multilateral engagement with the EU. By contrast, Romania appears committed to strengthening her role within both NATO and the EU frameworks.

What next?

As Eastern Europe navigates a complex security environment, the actions and policies of key nations like Poland and Romania will significantly shape the region’s future. Their responses to internal political shifts and external threats will determine the effectiveness of collective efforts to maintain stability and counter adversarial influences.

President Zelensky of Ukraine has congratulated Karol Nawrocki on his election and appears committed to working with him, as have a number of EU leaders. It seems hard to imagine that President Nawrocki will soften Poland's military stance on preparing for the possibility of invasion by Russia; his focus seems rather to be on budgetary savings given the large number of Ukrainian refugees present in Poland relying on state savings.

Even with swings towards right-wing populism, reflective of internal Polish politics, for now Poland and Romania appear to be stalwarts in the "new Iron Curtain". President Trump will have more influence in Polish politics; but the Trump-Polish alliance seems strong as the US maintains a substantial military presence in Poland and Poland is purchasing military hardware from the United States.

Donald Tusk likely remains Prime Minister of Poland, the most powerful political figure in the country, until the next Polish parliamentary election (presumed to be held in October 2027), and despite what might be seen as a setback for him personally, Polish foreign and defence policy are unlikely to change before then. However in this rapidly shifting set of alliances, the periodically alternating policy of the United States towards the war in Ukraine, only time will tell.