Riyadh: an extremely unusual upcoming diplomatic mediation

Former FSB head of foreign intelligence operations Sergey Beseda, who will lead the Russian delegation

The upcoming US-mediated shuttle diplomacy in Riyadh, now scheduled to commence on Monday 24 March 2025, presents a distinctive approach to addressing the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In this arrangement, US diplomats will engage in separate discussions with Ukrainian and Russian delegations, shuttling between them to facilitate dialogue; each delegation will presumably be in an adjacent five star hotel or a similar arrangement typical of Saudi Arabia. This method underscores the complexities inherent in direct negotiations between the conflicting parties.

Agenda of the Discussions

Several critical issues are slated for discussion during these talks:

• Temporary Ceasefire on Specific Targets: The Ukrainian delegation intends to propose a limited ceasefire focusing on the protection of energy and civilian infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated that Ukraine is prepared to implement a reciprocal ceasefire, highlighting the importance of safeguarding essential services for the civilian population. 

• Black Sea Shipping and Peace Settlement: The discussions aim to address safe shipping in the Black Sea and explore potential pathways toward a peace settlement for Ukraine. This includes revisiting agreements like the “Black Sea Initiative,” which previously facilitated the safe export of Ukrainian grain notwithstanding wartime conditions, but has since faced challenges as Russia was proved her willingness to use military force from Crimea against merchant shipping and the port of Odesa, notwithstanding the Black Sea Initiative. 

• US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement: While specific details are limited, it is anticipated that the talks will cover agreements related to mineral resources, reflecting ongoing collaborations between the U.S. and Ukraine in this sector.

• US management of and investment in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant at Enerhodar, in Russian-occupied Ukraine. US President Trump has touted this as an idea in somewhat undiplomatic terms, describing the United States as "owning" the Enerhodar facility; but of course what he means is that private US investors take over the plant, recondition and rebuild it so that it could work, and then enter into a profit and supply sharing agreement, particularly over the context of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement. This would require US investors' access to Ukrainian territory currently under Russian occupation, so it might assist in breaking down an impermeable ceasefire line into a more permeable "inter-entity boundary line" (in the model of the Dayton Peace Agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina). Any such agreement for US investment in Enerhodar would, like subsidiary agreements under the US-Ukraine minerals agreeement, have a time scale of years or even decades, thereby cementing the peace with US investment involvement in Ukraine for a long time.

Leadership of the Russian Delegation: Sergey Beseda

The Russian delegation will be led by Sergey Beseda, a figure with a complex history within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB):

• Role in 2014 and 2022: As head of the FSB’s Fifth Service (foreign intelligence operations), Beseda was involved in intelligence operations during the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, for which he was individually sanctioned internationally. He continued to be involved in liaising with Ukraine's SBU (the internal security service of Ukraine) during the reign of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (2014-2019) and later provided intelligence assessments that influenced President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022. His intelligence reportedly suggested a swift victory, a prediction that proved inaccurate. 

• Subsequent Downfall and Rehabilitation: Following the failed invasion strategy, Beseda faced severe repercussions, including imprisonment, and indeed 150 FSB officials were "purged" (to use the term from Stalin's time) as punishment for their failures. It seems that President Putin was most displeased with the intelligence failures that led to the second Russian invasion of Ukraine becoming a catastrophic stalemate. However Beseda was later rehabilitated and currently serves as an advisor to the FSB Director. 

Speculations on Beseda’s Appointment

Appointing Beseda to lead the delegation may carry underlying implications:

• Redemption Opportunity or Subtle Reproach: This role could be viewed as an opportunity for Beseda to redeem himself by contributing to conflict resolution. More likely, it might be perceived as a not very subtle reprimand, assigning him the arduous task of negotiating a ceasefire to rectify the consequences of his earlier miscalculations.

• High-Stakes Responsibility: Given the gravity of the negotiations, failure to achieve favourable outcomes for Russia in the mediations could jeopardise Beseda’s standing within the Russian political hierarchy, potentially leading to severe repercussions upon his return to Moscow. If the negotiations go badly, and Beseda fouls up a second time, then he might be the next person finding himself falling out of a window or being involved in a mysterious bus accident.

Conclusion

The forthcoming shuttle diplomacy in Riyadh embodies the intricate and sensitive nature of international negotiations amid ongoing conflicts. The involvement of figures like Sergey Beseda shows just how complex the Russian position is, in sending the person responsible for the failure of the second Russian invasion of Ukraine to go and sort out his own mess. Both the United States as mediators and Saudi Arabia as hosts will need to tread carefully in dealing the challenges and the high stakes for both countries and individuals, in seeking a resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict.