Reviving the Black Sea Grain deal

The prospective revival of the Black Sea Grain Deal has emerged as a key topic in the ongoing talks between the United States and the Russian Federation in Riyadh today. This agreement, originally brokered by Turkey in 2022, was designed to address global food security concerns exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The deal facilitated the safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, particularly from Odesa port, ensuring that food supplies to the Middle East and Africa were not severely disrupted. In return, Russia was granted partial relief from banking sanctions, allowing her agricultural exports to access global markets.

Origins and Terms of the Black Sea Grain Deal

The Black Sea Grain Initiative was established amid mounting geopolitical pressure as the blockade of Ukrainian ports, including Odesa, drove food prices higher, particularly in regions heavily dependent on Ukrainian grain, such as the Middle East and North Africa. Turkey, leveraging its strategic position controlling access to the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait, successfully mediated the agreement with the backing of the United Nations.

The deal, signed on 22 July 2022, stipulated that the Russian Navy would refrain from attacking merchant vessels utilising Odesa port for grain shipments. In return, Western powers, primarily the United States and the European Union, agreed to relax certain financial restrictions on Russian agricultural exports, including permitting transactions through the SWIFT system for specific Russian banks involved in food and fertiliser trade.

Breakdown of the Agreement

Despite the agreement, Russia intermittently disrupted grain shipments through military actions against Ukraine’s Black Sea infrastructure. Attacks on Odesa port and merchant shipping persisted, ultimately leading to the collapse of the deal in mid-2023. Moscow cited unfulfilled commitments regarding banking sanctions relief as justification for its withdrawal from the accord. Since then, Odesa port has remained a heavily militarised zone, frequently targeted by Russian missiles and drones. The continued degradation of port infrastructure has posed significant challenges for any renewed grain export arrangement.

Current Conditions at Odesa Port and Russian Naval Capabilities

One factor potentially facilitating a revival of the Black Sea Grain Deal is the recent strategic shift in Russian naval operations. Due to successful Ukrainian attacks using waterborne drones and Neptune missiles, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has largely retreated from its primary base in Sevastopol, in Crimea relocating vessels through the Sea of Azov and up Russian rivers to safer harbours. The sinking of key Russian warships, including the fleet’s flagship, the Moskva, has significantly diminished Russia’s capacity to project naval power in the region.

However despite her reduced naval presence, Russia retains formidable missile and drone capabilities at its Simferopol base in Crimea, which it continues to use to strike Odesa and other Ukrainian targets. Any prospective deal must account for the persistent threat of Russian aerial attacks, requiring both enhanced air defences at Odesa port and possibly international security guarantees.

Challenges in Reviving the Deal

For the Black Sea Grain Deal to be revived, significant reconstruction at Odesa port is necessary. Much of the port’s infrastructure has been damaged, and rapid rehabilitation efforts would be essential to restoring its function as a major grain export hub. The speed of reconstruction depends on financial support from Western nations and security assurances against further Russian attacks.

Another critical aspect of the negotiations involves determining what form of sanctions relief might be offered to Russia in exchange for its participation in the deal. While the United States may propose easing restrictions on Russian agricultural trade, the effectiveness of such measures would be limited without corresponding actions from the European Union. If Europe declines to relax sanctions, Moscow may perceive the offered incentives as insufficient. Europe is not party to the negotiations taking placing in Riyadh today.

Enforcement Mechanisms and the Role of Turkey

A revived deal would require robust enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance. One possibility is the deployment of third-party naval forces to escort merchant vessels, thereby deterring Russian interference. However, under the Montreux Convention, Turkey controls the passage of warships through the Bosphorus Strait (leading between the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea) and has previously exercised her authority to limit the entry of military vessels into the Black Sea. Ankara’s willingness to permit an international security force—whether composed of NATO or non-aligned states—will be crucial in determining the feasibility of enforcing the agreement.

Prospects for Success

While the Riyadh negotiations present an opportunity to resuscitate the Black Sea Grain Deal, its viability hinges on several conditions:

1. Russian compliance with non-aggression commitments – Moscow must agree to halt attacks on Odesa port and merchant vessels.

   
   

2. Reconstruction of Odesa port – Rapid rebuilding efforts must ensure the port’s capacity to handle grain exports.

   
   

3. Sanctions relief acceptable to Russia – The United States and possibly the United Kingdom and the European Union must offer tangible incentives.

   
   

4. Security enforcement mechanisms – The involvement of a credible third-party naval force may be necessary to deter violations.

   
   

5. Turkey’s cooperation – Ankara’s agreement to facilitate security measures will be instrumental.

   
   

Without meeting these conditions, any agreement reached in Riyadh may suffer the same fate as the previous deal, ultimately failing to ensure the safe export of Ukrainian grain as Russia just withdraws (as she did previously) and resumes offensive operations against the Odesa region. Nonetheless, the current geopolitical landscape—particularly Russia’s diminished naval presence—provides a potential opening for diplomatic progress. The success of these talks will depend on the ability of negotiators to construct a robust, enforceable framework that satisfies all parties involved.