Military Conditions in Eastern Kharkiv Province: Kupiansk, Dvorichna, and Shevchenkove

As of late April 2025, the eastern Kharkiv region—particularly the areas surrounding Kupiansk, Dvorichna, and Shevchenkove—remains a focal point of intense military activity. Russian forces are executing persistent offensives, while Ukrainian troops mount a determined defence to prevent further territorial incursions.

Russian Offensive Progress and Ukrainian Resistance

Russian military units, notably elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army, have been striving to expand their control north of Kupiansk, aiming to push Ukrainian forces from the east bank of the Oskil River. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces have effectively repelled multiple crossing attempts near Dvorichna, utilising artillery strikes to destroy pontoon bridges and armoured vehicles.

The Ukrainian 1st “Burevii” brigade has been particularly active in targeting Russian logistics and engineering operations, contributing to significant Russian casualties. Estimates suggest that Russian monthly casualty rates range between 20,000 and 35,000 service members (i.e. approximately 1,000 casualties a day in this small area alone), underscoring the high cost of their moderate advances.

Speed and Impact of the Russian Advance

In January 2025, the Russians re-seized the small town of Dvorichna to the extent of the eastern bank of the Oskil River. Dvorichna had a pre-war population of less than 3,000, but its population now is estimated to be about 80; most people have fled. About 150 people are estimated still to be living in that part of Dvorichna which lies on the western bank of the Oskil River, although conditions there are extremely basic, without electricity, gas or running water.

However the Russian Armed Forces seem unable to harbour sufficient troops or logistics to cross the Oskil River, suggesting chronic supply problems as the Oskil River is not wide at Dvorichna and the river is virtually wadable. Hence while the Russian forces have made some territorial gains, the pace of their advance has been impeded by staunch Ukrainian resistance. This mirrors the situation along the front line, where the Russians for the most part simply seem to be stuck. The Russian "meat grinder" tactics, of hurling as many troops as possible into the face of relentless Ukrainian fire, is giving the Ukrainian Armed Forces the opportunity to wipe out large numbers of Russian troops without significant cost, for as long as they retain the ammunition for artillery and mortar to destroy Russian tanks and the large number of FPV drones they are using to target Russian infantry. Such limited Russian progression as there may be in the region is extremely slow and costly.

The use of Russian convict units, such as the “Storm-Z” formations, has been observed in the Kupiansk direction. These units, often composed of poorly trained and poorly motivated personnel, have hindered the effectiveness of Russian offensives despite their large numbers.

The Russians have also effectively cut the direct road between Kupiansk and Izium, but they seem unable to expand upon this limited bridgehead which has been in Russian hands for a few months. While driving to and from Kupiansk remains reasonably safe and feasible via Shevchenkove and then joining the main road south to Izium just to the southeast of Kharkiv, the direct road south from Kupiansk to Izium is not safe due to Russian artillery and infantry positions being in immediate proximity of the road as it crosses the Oskil River.

Strategic Significance and Infrastructure Damage

Kupiansk has served as a critical logistics hub and a key crossing point supporting Ukraine’s eastern bridgehead since the Ukrainians' 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive expelling the Russians from the city in September 2022. However the city has suffered almost complete destruction due to relentless shelling, with significant damage to infrastructure, including the railway system and the railway bridge in the centre of the city. This destruction diminishes the strategic value of Kupiansk for Russian forces, as the logistical advantages of capturing the city are compromised.

The proximity of Kupiansk to the frontline—approximately 7-8 kilometers—places not only the city but also surrounding communities under constant threat, affecting a population of over 9,000 people.

Historical Occupations and Civilian Conditions

Kupiansk, Dvorichna, and Shevchenkove experienced Russian occupation early in the conflict. Shevchenkove was occupied on 26 February 2022 and remained under Russian control until its liberation on 7 September 2022, with Shevchenkove and Kupiansk being liberated a few days before that. During these periods, residents faced harsh conditions, including forced labour and enforced collaboration with the occupation authorities (i.e. at gunpoint).

Post-liberation, these towns have been subjected to ongoing shelling, leading to significant civilian suffering. In Kupiansk, for instance, the population has dwindled to about 20% of its pre-war numbers, with approximately 5,500 residents remaining despite the dangers. There is a grocery store and a small market but no other businesses seem to be operating and there is no obvious presence of functional electricity or running water. The streets in the city centre are very slow-going due to potholes as a result of artillery damage, and few of the remaining buildings are habitable.

Shevchenkove is in substantially better condition than Kupiansk, with roads that are fairly easily passable, and the road between Shevchenkove and Kupiansk is in good condition. Again the railway bridge has been blown in a a strategic location near Shevchenkove, rendering the capture of Kupiansk and Shevchenkove of little strategic value to the Russian Armed Forces. This makes it all the more ill-considered for the Russians to focus troops in the region, which has a heavy concentration of experienced Ukrainian soldiers. Instead the Russians are just sending their infantry to a seemingly purposeless death in the region.

Assessment of Eastern Kharkiv’s Security

The current military situation in eastern Kharkiv province indicates a region under significant pressure but not in immediate jeopardy. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resilience and tactical proficiency in halting Russian advances, particularly around strategic locations like Kupiansk and Dvorichna. The substantial Russian casualties and the limited speed of their advance suggest that, while the threat persists, Ukrainian defences remain robust.

Nevertheless continued international support and reinforcement of Ukrainian military capabilities are essential to maintain this defensive posture and prevent further Russian incursions into the region. A renewed assault on Kharkiv seems a long way off; the Russians have nowhere near the manpower or armour and materiel to attempt it, and seem content just with terrorising the civilian population with periodic drone and missile attacks.