How Scandinavia is Preparing for War

In an era of renewed geopolitical instability, Scandinavia has undergone a profound transformation in its defence posture. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered many assumptions about the post-Cold War European security order. For the Scandinavian states—Sweden, Norway and Denmark—alongside their Nordic neighbours Finland and Iceland, this upheaval has triggered a series of sweeping reforms in defence planning, military investment, civil preparedness and alliance strategy. No longer shielded by geographic distance or neutrality, Scandinavia is preparing seriously for the possibility of conflict in the form of Russian invasion.

NATO Integration and Strategic Reorientation

Perhaps the most dramatic shift is Sweden and Finland’s decision to join NATO. Finland became a NATO member in April 2023, ending decades of non-alignment, and Sweden followed in 2024 after overcoming political opposition within Turkey and Hungary. This strategic alignment has irrevocably altered the Nordic security architecture. For the first time in history, the entire Nordic region is under NATO’s security umbrella.

This expansion closes the geographic gap in NATO’s northern flank, allowing coordinated defence planning across the High North, the Baltic Sea and the Arctic. Sweden and Finland bring highly capable militaries, particularly in cold-weather and territorial defence. Sweden’s Gripen aircraft, submarines and conscription-based land forces, and Finland’s large trained reserve and advanced artillery systems, offer enhanced military value. Norway, a founding NATO member, hosts key air and naval facilities and supports NATO’s posture in the North Atlantic.

Together the Nordic countries are working to integrate their forces under NATO command structures. The creation of a Nordic Air Operations Centre, joint exercises and interoperability programmes show how quickly the region is adapting to alliance operations. Additionally pre-positioning of NATO equipment, upgrading of ports and runways and enhanced US troop access agreements—such as those recently signed between the US and both Sweden and Finland—consolidate the region’s preparedness.

Military Modernisation and Budget Increases

Scandinavian countries are dramatically increasing defence spending. All have committed to meeting or exceeding NATO’s 2% of GDP defence target:

• Sweden has nearly doubled her defence budget since 2020 and is reactivating regiments across the country, including on the island of Gotland, a strategic Baltic location.

  
  

• Finland now maintains one of Europe’s most formidable militaries relative to her population size. Her procurement of 64 F-35 fighter jets and investments in long-range precision fires and air defence underscore her deterrence goals.

  
  

• Norway is focusing on the High North. She is acquiring new submarines, expanding her cyber defense capabilities, and deepening military cooperation with the US, United Kingdom and Germany.

  
  

• Denmark, though geographically further from Russia, has also committed to rearming, with investments in artillery, air defence and NATO operations readiness.

This military modernisation is not limited to equipment. Scandinavia is investing in rapid mobilisation, conscription and reservist systems. Finland and Norway maintain robust conscription-based forces. Sweden reinstated conscription in 2017 and is now expanding the number of annual conscripts. Denmark is considering mandatory military service for women for the first time.

Civil Preparedness and Total Defence

Scandinavia’s preparations extend beyond military hardware. The region is reviving Cold War-era doctrines of “total defence,” integrating civilian infrastructure, industry and population into national security planning.

In Finland, perhaps the global leader in civil defence, every town has designated bomb shelters, and continuity of government planning is extensive. The country maintains strategic stockpiles of fuel, food, and medicine. The Ministry of the Interior trains local governments and industries in how to maintain critical services in wartime.

Sweden has reintroduced her “If Crisis or War Comes” pamphlet, instructing citizens on how to act during war or major disruptions. She has reestablished civil defence agencies and funded infrastructure improvements to withstand attack. Schools and local authorities are now part of national resilience planning.

Norway has reinforced her Arctic infrastructure and critical oil and gas installations. She is also investing in cyber defence, counter-disinformation programmes and increased intelligence cooperation with allies. All Scandinavian states are rethinking how to ensure energy, transport and food security in the event of conflict.

Arctic and Baltic Posturing

Scandinavia’s geography places it at the centre of two emerging flashpoints: the Arctic and the Baltic Sea.

The Arctic is becoming more militarised, as Russia upgrades her northern bases and NATO increases surveillance and deployments. Norway in particular is central to this theatre. Her Finnmark region borders Russia directly. Oslo has increased troop presence there, and Norwegian military exercises with US Marines in Arctic conditions are now regular.

The Norwegian-Russian border (at land and at sea)

In the Baltic Sea, Gotland (between the Swedish mainland and Latvia) is once again heavily fortified, and Swedish and Finnish naval forces are training closely in the region with NATO’s Baltic allies. The Baltic Sea is now a so-called “NATO lake” in strategic terms, but it remains vulnerable to hybrid threats and Russian provocations.

Challenges and Public Support

These preparations are not without political and social implications. Defence spending competes with social welfare budgets, and there are debates over civil liberties in the context of security. However public support for defence strengthening is high. Russian aggression has made the prospect of war feel real.

There are also concerns about escalation. How to balance deterrence with diplomatic restraint is an ongoing question. Scandinavia’s governments have stressed their defensive intent while participating actively in sanctions and support for Ukraine.

Conclusion: Strategic Unity in a Dangerous World

Scandinavia is no longer the haven of neutrality it once was. The return of major war to Europe has forced these peaceful and prosperous countries to prepare for the worst. By investing in collective defence, modernising militaries, and fostering societal resilience, they are making it clear that aggression will not go unanswered. Their preparations reflect a new era of realism, one that blends the ideals of peace with the necessity of deterrence in an unstable world.