How ready is Ukraine for the winter?

By Peeter Helme

Thursday 29 October 2026

Snow returned to Pip Ivan, one of the Ukrainian Carpathians’ highest peaks, on 27 October, when rescuers reported temperatures of minus 4 degrees Celsius. Ukraine approaches November with power cuts expected, emergency heating projects still unfinished, and food distributors running short of replacement warehouse space.

Preparations have given utilities and retailers ways to operate without the grid. Yet, their ability to maintain services through repeated, prolonged outages is uneven.

Power cuts are already in the winter forecasts

LB.ua’s 29 October assessment, drawing on comments from energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko, describes winter scenarios in which 11–12 gigawatts (GW) of domestic generating capacity would be available, falling to 8 GW if the crisis deepens. Both involve scheduled outages. The report says that October’s attacks have made the earlier 15.5 GW scenario, excluding imports, unattainable.

For comparison, former grid operator chief Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, quoted by Ekonomichna Pravda, puts evening electricity consumption during a cold winter at 15–18 GW. These estimates indicate the potential shortfall, but do not show how long outages would last in each region.

Eight of Ukraine’s nine government-controlled reactors are operating, with the ninth expected back from maintenance shortly. Omelchenko puts nuclear capacity at 7.8 GW.

Damage to the grid can cause local outages even when national production meets demand. Andrii Herus, chairman of parliament’s energy committee, said on 27 October that Ukraine could meet current demand, but damaged substations and power lines prevented electricity from reaching some consumers. A region with a shortage could remain cut off from surplus power elsewhere.

Imports help meet morning and evening peaks. Ukraine can still export surplus electricity at night or during sunny hours, as LB.ua explains, while damaged internal connections leave some consumers without supply. Ukrainian energy think tank DiXi Group recorded a 57% weekly fall in exports and a 14% rise in imports for 19–25 October. Omelchenko also warns that imports become commercially unattractive when prices abroad exceed Ukraine’s regulated maximum selling prices.

Can heating and water survive the outages?

In Mykolaiv, an investigation published by local outlet MykVisti on 2 October found that one major heating supplier had alternative electricity sources at 90% of its boilerhouses. Director Mykola Lohvinov said mobile generators would serve some remaining sites, with the units moved between boilerhouses. Continuous operation depended on having enough fuel.

The water utility’s chief engineer, Vitalii Tkachenko, told the same outlet that its main facilities had backup power, but pumps serving upper floors did not. Residents on those floors could lose water as soon as electricity failed.

Konotop in Sumy Oblast has already needed outside help to sustain backup operations. After the 24 October attack, the government promised diesel on 28 October for the boilerhouse and water utility. On 29 October, Ukrenergo reported that all consumers could again receive electricity, though it was still being supplied to different groups in turn.

The government’s 98.6% national readiness figure, announced on 28 October, covers housing, municipal services, and social infrastructure. The announcement does not specify how long those services can operate without external electricity. Ukrainian business news outlet The Page reported that the infrastructure ministry had refused its request for regional totals of facilities capable of operating autonomously for at least 24 hours, citing security concerns.

In Kyiv, some emergency heating capacity will arrive after the season has begun. A ministry inspection on 26 October found substantial construction, connection, and commissioning work outstanding at reserve boilerhouses. Completion was expected to take about two months, with equipment installation at some sites scheduled through late December.

Gas stocks and idle power plants

Serhii Fedorenko, acting head of state-owned Naftogaz, told Suspilne that stocks were the largest in six years, with imports planned during peak winter demand. He nevertheless warned that attacks could prevent gas from reaching homes even when enough remained in storage.

Smaller gas-fired plants can produce electricity close to consumers, and some can also supply heat. Much of this capacity remains unused.

The energy ministry reported 1.8 GW of installed capacity in July, while Maksym Marchenko, head of the association representing distributed and flexible power generation, told Ekonomichna Pravda on 26 October that only about 700 megawatts were actually operating and connected to the grid.

That operating total equals roughly 4–5% of Kudrytskyi’s cold-weather evening demand estimate. Marchenko estimates another 1.1 GW is unused. Operators describe connection delays, shortages of trained staff, uncertain gas prices, and late payments for electricity.

Food supplies face a storage shortage

Supermarket chain ATB told NV Business on 13 October that two recent warehouse strikes had destroyed goods and delayed deliveries, but had not caused a food shortage at that point.

Replacement warehouse space is scarce in the Kyiv region. An Expandia property-market assessment published on 28 October found that less than 1% of the surveyed space was vacant at the end of August. It identified a particularly acute shortage of facilities storing goods at different temperatures. Companies were spreading stocks between sites in western Ukraine to maintain operations.

Oleksandr Bondarenko, head of the Bureau of Investment Programs, told Interfax-Ukraine, according to NV Business’s 15 October report, that refrigerated warehouses were already in short supply. He warned that running a 15,000-square-meter facility on diesel generators through three or four months of persistent blackouts could become uneconomic, forcing owners to mothball it.

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Ukraine’s winter readiness is partial and uneven. Its power stations, gas stocks, and backup systems help maintain essential services during outages, but households can still lose heating and water where equipment lacks backup power. Some planned protection will be ready only after the season has begun.

Recurring electricity cuts are expected under the published winter scenarios. Whether those cuts also cause prolonged heating and water outages or disrupt chilled and frozen food supplies will depend on local backup coverage, repairs, and the fuel and money needed to keep backup systems running. The government’s optimistic 98.6% readiness figure does not show how long particular communities can sustain their services without the grid.