Friedrich Merz: Germany's pivot towards Ukraine

As Germany anticipates a leadership change with Friedrich Merz poised to become the next Chancellor, significant shifts in foreign and defence policies are expected, particularly concerning Ukraine and broader European security dynamics.

German Federal Election System and Chancellor Appointment

Germany employs a mixed-member proportional representation system for its federal elections. Voters cast two ballots: one for a direct representative in their constituency and another for a political party. This system ensures a balance between direct representation and proportional party influence in the Bundestag, Germany’s federal parliament.

Post-election, the process of forming a government involves coalition negotiations, especially when no single party achieves an outright majority. The President nominates a Chancellor candidate, typically the leader of the majority party or coalition, who must then secure a majority vote in the Bundestag. This intricate process can result in extended periods where the incumbent Chancellor remains in office until a new coalition agreement is finalised, explaining Olaf Scholz’s continued tenure despite his party’s electoral defeat on 23 February 2025.

Contrasting Approaches to the Ukraine Conflict: Scholz versus Merz

Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been characterised by a cautious approach to the Ukraine conflict, emphasising diplomacy and measured support; critics have said that this approach was due to his fear that Russian hydrocarbon supplies to Germany be cut off, raising prices In the event that happened anyway and Germany has found other ways to source her hydrocarbon needs. In contrast, Friedrich Merz advocates for a more assertive stance, emphasising the necessity of upholding international law and supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty. Merz’s commitment to transatlantic relations underscores his belief in a robust partnership with the United States and NATO allies to address European security challenges.

Merz’s Position on the Ukraine Conflict

Friedrich Merz has articulated a firm position regarding the Ukraine conflict, emphasising the importance of international law and the necessity for Russia to withdraw from occupied Ukrainian territories. He has proposed significant increases in defence spending to bolster Germany’s military capabilities, aiming to enhance deterrence against further Russian aggression. Merz has also suggested reintroducing compulsory military service for both sexes, acknowledging past mistakes in its abolition and emphasising the need for a robust defence posture. 

Projected Increases in Defence Expenditure and Manpower

Under Merz’s leadership, Germany is expected to undertake substantial enhancements in her defense capabilities. Proposals include exempting defence spending exceeding 1% of GDP from constitutional debt restrictions, facilitating significant investments in military infrastructure. Additionally, a €500 billion fund is proposed for industrial and infrastructure projects over the next decade, reflecting a commitment to comprehensive national security. 

Germany’s Emerging Leadership in European Security

Merz’s vision positions Germany alongside the United Kingdom and France as a leading advocate for a comprehensive peace plan in Ukraine. This European coalition seeks to assert greater autonomy in security matters, potentially diverging from US-led initiatives. Merz has emphasised the need for Europe to gain full independence from the United States on matters of defence, proposing a new European defence alliance that includes nuclear cooperation with France and the United Kingdom.

Implications for US-Mediated Peace Negotiations

The increasing coordination among Europe’s major powers under Merz’s leadership may challenge the effectiveness of US-mediated peace efforts. A unified European stance, emphasising a robust response to Russian aggression and support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, could lead to tensions with US strategies that may favour more conciliatory approaches to Russia involving Ukraine granting territorial concessions. This dynamic suggests potential obstacles for US diplomacy if European allies pursue more assertive policies that Ukraine becomes naturally allied to.

Anticipated Timeline and Strategic Impact

Friedrich Merz is expected to assume office following the completion of coalition negotiations, likely within the next few months. His leadership marks a potential turning point in the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia, as Germany prepares to rearm and take a more proactive role in European security. The proposed rearmament includes not only increased defence spending but also structural reforms aimed at enhancing Germany’s military readiness.

Potential Role of an Expanded German Military

An expanded and modernized German military under Merz could serve as a significant deterrent to further Russian aggression in Europe. The reintroduction of compulsory military service and substantial investments in defence infrastructure aim to create a formidable standing land army. While Merz has expressed openness to deploying German peacekeepers to Ukraine under a legitimate international mandate, he acknowledges the current absence of such conditions. 

In conclusion, Friedrich Merz’s anticipated chancellorship signals a decisive shift in Germany’s foreign and defence policies. His commitment to strengthening Germany’s military capabilities and asserting European autonomy in security matters reflects a strategic response to contemporary geopolitical challenges, with significant implications for the Ukraine conflict and broader European stability. Germany has had a massive standing land army before, and has proven herself a formidable military player. She may now reassume that role, given the near-unanimous acknowledgment within Europe of Russian military aggression as a threat to the continent. There is no way the Russian Armed Forces could defeat a modernised and fully numbered German land army, reinforced by a modernised and expanded British navy and an expanded French Air Force. This sort of coordination may be the future of European security.