On 6 March 2025, the European Council (the highest level of the EU's governing structures) convened in Brussels for an emergency summit to address escalating security concerns stemming from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and recent shifts in US foreign policy. The summit culminated in two pivotal decisions: a historic agreement to bolster defence spending across the European Union; and the adoption of statement EUCO 10/25, which outlines the EU’s continued support for Ukraine and establishes parameters for potential peace negotiations.
Historic Increase in Defence Spending
In a landmark move, all 27 EU member states unanimously agreed to loosen existing budgetary constraints to facilitate a substantial increase in defense expenditure. This decision aligns with the “ReArm Europe” initiative proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, aiming to mobilise up to €800 billion to enhance the EU’s defence capabilities.
The €800 billion package comprises several components, including €150 billion in loans designated for joint procurement of defence equipment. The remaining €650 billion is expected to result from the suspension of certain EU budgetary rules, enabling member states to augment their defence budgets over the next four years.
This escalation would elevate the EU’s total defence spending from the current €326 billion to approximately €1.126 trillion, significantly surpassing the United States’ 2023 defence budget of $820 billion. When combined with the United Kingdom’s defence expenditure of £53.9 billion (which the United Kingdom has recently pledged to increase by a further 0.2% of GDP) and Turkey’s $44.3 billion, the collective military spending of European nations supporting Ukraine would significantly exceed that of the United States. In this context it is worth noting that it has been recently reported that Turkey, NATO's second largest military power in manpower terms, would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine "if necessary". This aligns Turkey in the European camp as opposed to the United States that has so far ruled out the prospect of sending troops to Ukraine.
Key Provisions of EUCO 10/25
Statement EUCO 10/25 reaffirms the European Union’s unwavering support for Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression. The document emphasises the EU’s commitment to providing increased military assistance to Ukraine and delineates the principles guiding any future peace or ceasefire negotiations. These principles include the preservation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territories, and the establishment of a framework for post-conflict reconstruction.
While the statement received overwhelming support, it was endorsed by 26 of the 27 member states. Although the dissenting nation was not officially disclosed, it is widely speculated to be Hungary, given Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ongoing independent dialogues with Moscow.
Implications of Hungary’s Position
Hungary’s reluctance to endorse EUCO 10/25 presents challenges to the EU’s unified stance on Ukraine. However, the European Union possesses mechanisms to continue its support for Ukraine despite individual member state dissent. Enhanced cooperation among willing member states, utilisation of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) framework, and collaboration with NATO allies, can ensure sustained assistance to Ukraine.
Legal Framework and Budgetary Adjustments
The decision to relax EU budgetary restrictions involves temporarily suspending certain fiscal rules, such as the Stability and Growth Pact, which traditionally limits member states’ budget deficits and debt levels. This suspension grants countries the flexibility to increase defence spending without breaching EU fiscal regulations. The European Commission estimates that this relaxation could unlock approximately €650 billion over the next four years, significantly bolstering the EU’s defence posture.
Distribution of Increased Defense Spending
The allocation of the projected €800 billion increase in defence spending is anticipated to vary among member states, reflecting their individual security needs and economic capacities. For instance, Denmark plans to elevate its defence expenditure to 3% of GDP, while Estonia and Latvia aim for allocations exceeding 4% by 2026. France has also signaled readiness to deploy ground troops to Ukraine if necessary, underscoring its commitment to regional security. The United Kingdom has done the same.
Shifting Dynamics in Global Defence
The substantial augmentation of Europe’s defence budget signifies a pivotal shift in global military dynamics. With the EU’s defence spending potentially surpassing that of the United States, Europe is poised to assume a more prominent role in global security affairs. However, it is important to note that the US maintains a larger standing military force and possesses extensive defence infrastructure. Consequently, Europe may require time to translate increased financial commitments into enhanced military capabilities.
Impact on US Involvement in Ukraine
The US administration’s recent suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine has prompted European nations to reassess their defence strategies. The EU’s decision to bolster its defence spending reflects a determination to support Ukraine independently, potentially diminishing US influence in future peace negotiations. This development could lead to a more autonomous European defence policy, aligning with long-standing discussions about strategic autonomy within the EU.
Re-orienting global military capabilities
The European Council’s decisions on 6 March 2025 mark a watershed moment in the EU’s approach to collective defence and its support for Ukraine. By substantially increasing defence spending and reaffirming commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, the EU is taking decisive steps to enhance its security capabilities and assert its role on the global stage. While challenges remain, including the potential for internal dissent and the need for effective implementation, these measures underscore Europe’s resolve to address emerging security threats and contribute constructively to the resolution of the Ukraine conflict.