Economic squeeze on ordinary Russians - from the Russian newspapers

Russia has plowed vast resources into her military campaign against Ukraine—financing troops, munitions and sanctions risks—while neglecting civilian economic health. Economists warn that wartime expenditure, coupled with enduring sanctions, is pushing Russia toward recession and a looming credit crisis.

Inflation and credit crunch

Real inflation likely exceeds the official 9–10%, with many reporting dramatically higher costs for food, fuel and services. In response the Russian Central Bank—led by Elvira Nabiullina—has raised rates to a record ~21%; but this has backfired, crippling investment, burdening borrowers, and contributing to a freeze in credit markets.

Hidden unemployment and rising poverty

While official unemployment is low (~4%), “hidden unemployment” — underemployment, unpaid leave and job losses—likely affects up to 13% of workers (~4 million). Meanwhile around one-third of Russians consume below the subsistence level—far higher than government figures suggest.

Oligarch dissent: sign of elite fissures

Putin’s support has long rested on a compact with wealthy elites: stay out of politics, expand your wealth, and in return you'll be protected. But growing economic distress has provoked rare public criticism from some oligarchs, signalling internal pressure.

Public critiques of economic policy

Leading figures like Alexei Mordashov, Sergei Chemezov and others levelled public criticism at Nabiullina’s central bank policies—blaming high interest rates for stifling business and stunting growth. Some even demanded her removal.

Calls for peace from within elite and media circles

Russian media, including that associated with regional district councils, has issued formal demands for Putin’s impeachment over mismanagement of the economy and mass conscription, arguing that the "special military operation" is draining Russia's resources. Influential media controlled by oligarchs—such as Konstantin Malofeyev’s Tsargrad—have also voiced hardline critiques, unusual in a tightly controlled media landscape.

Oligarchs expressing anti-war positions

A few high-profile oligarchs based abroad—like Oleg Tinkov and Arkady Volozh—have openly condemned the war. While they are less impactful within Russia, their stance signals the fragility of oligarch deference when economic and reputational costs mount .

Putin’s grip: under strain but not broken

The oligarchs’ public criticism is significant for several reasons:

1. Breaking the rule of silence

Open dissent by elites who control major media outlets or large enterprises—calling for discussion of peace and economic reform—signals elite anxiety. This contrasts with earlier, more covert discontent.

2. Shifting narratives within controlled media

Even state-aligned outlets, such as Kommersant (a prestigious Russian equivalent of the Financial Times, controlled by an Oligarch previously assumed to be close to Putin) are messaging discontent through coverage of recession fears, discussions of normalisation with the West, or the publication of critical district council resolutions. This narrows the Kremlin's room to manage dissent.

3. Erosion of elite immunity

Putin's asset seizures—targeting those accused of “foreign influence”—suggest the government may turn on its own allies, raising distrust and fear among elites .

Despite this, Putin retains substantial levers of power:

Control of coercive instruments and media

State propaganda remains powerful. Prominent anchors like Dmitry Kiselyov promote the Kremlin narrative, stressing unity and downplaying economic crisis.

Elite buy-in through war narrative

Many elites still view the war as essential to Russia's geopolitical aims, fearing that diplomatic compromise might lead to further political and hence economic instability.

Outlook: possible fractures ahead

Elite fractures becoming public pressures

Continued economic pain may embolden more public criticism. If oligarchs escalate demands—especially on peace negotiations or reallocation of spending—the Kremlin could lose political cover provided by the oligarchs and so essential to Putin's grip on power. Putin cannot murder all of the oligarchs; many of them are too powerful.

Public mood turning critical

Surveys show 64 % of Russians now favour peace talks, the highest level recorded. If that sentiment translates into quiet dissent or passive resistance, it may open new pressure points on Putin.

State backlash versus political recalibration

The regime may choose to crush dissent through repression or asset seizures—or pivot toward negotiation to stabilise the economy. The choice could reshape elite loyalties and public trust.

Conclusions

Russia's economic crisis—bolstered by skyrocketing war expenditures, sanctions, inflation, and credit shortages—is directly squeezing everyday Russians. But equally notable is the audacity of oligarchs and regional political organs in openly criticising these policies. This public rebellion is rare in modern Putin-era Russia and signals elite fracture. If economic stress deepens, and if public sentiment continues to favour peace, then Putin's once-solid support among elites may come under severe strain.

At present, his power remains firmly grounded in state media control, coercive institutions and elite compacts. However the growing boldness of his oligarchs—facilitated through the outlets they own or influence—reveals cracks that, if widened, could challenge assumptions about the durability of his rule.

Mr Putin is surely concerned at this stage about falling out of his own hospital window, and is engaging in a precarious navigation so that he might retire in peace. This is a luxury few Russian leaders in history have enjoyed, which is the principal reason why this mindless war seems determined to plough on indefinitely. The only way out of this situation is a face-saving ceasefire; but given the joint determination of the West, now solidified in a renewed transatlantic military alliance together with the threat of secondary secntions, seems ever less likely.