Donald Trump's angry: could additional military support break through Russian lines?

Today Sunday 30 March 2025 US President Trump vented his frustration that Russian President Vladimir Putin is intentionally delaying ceasefire talks by proposing an "internationalisation" of the Ukrainian government, replacing it with a UN-mandated civilian administration and oustering Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This idea was never going to go down well with a US President who is not known for conducting diplomacy through international institutions, as our prior article indicated.

Trump now seems to have concluded that President Putin is not negotiating faith; he is buying time to extract further territory on the battlefield. In his remarks to the press today, he said that he was "pissed off" with Vladimir Putin over his internationalisation proposal and said that he expected a ceasefire within 30 days, saying:

"If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault, which it might not be, but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said. That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all … on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil."

In a later article we will discuss what President Trump likely meant by "secondary sanctions"and what effect these various tariff levels, that President Trump himself does not seem to be certain about yet, might have. But now we wish to discuss the possibility, which may be the quickest way of ending this war, of increased western military funding to assist the Ukrainian Armed Forces to push through Russian front lines. If the Russians, who now say they are planning a summer offensive in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions, but in fact have their own front lines pushed though, then that might significantly change the dynamic of the war as the Russians see that they are losing territory as the West puts its weight behind the Ukrainian Armed Forces, rather than (as in 2024) the Russians gradually gained territory.

Sumy region. Sumy, a major city in northeastern Ukraine near the Russian border, has not seen significant fighting but the Russians are threatening to make it an object of focus in the 2025 fighting season.

Kharkiv and its near-adjacent Russian counterpart city, Belgorod. The prior 2022 Russian attempted invasion of Kharkiv was a wanton failure although aerial attacks continue to plague the city.

Zaporizhzhia (pre-war population some 750,000) is closer to current active frontline fighting than either Sumy or Kharkiv but the front lines are very heavily entrenched in the Zaporizhzhia region, not having moved substantially since the beginning of the war.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen fluctuating front lines and significant territorial changes since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. As of 29 March 2025, the prospect of the Ukrainian Armed Forces launching a successful counter-offensive to reclaim occupied territories within the next 12 months hinges on multiple factors, including the extent of Western military support, manpower dynamics, economic conditions, and the strategic challenges posed by specific regions such as Crimea and the Donbas.

Manpower and Mobilisation

While both Ukraine and Russia have comparably sized standing armies, Russia’s larger population provides a deeper pool of conscription-age individuals, offering an advantage in replenishing frontline troops. However, Russia’s reliance on conscripts and reports of coercive recruitment practices have raised questions about the quality and morale of her forces who in many cases do not know why they are going to war at all. Conversely, Ukraine’s forces are highly motivated, defending their homeland, which can serve as a significant force multiplier despite numerical disadvantages.

Economic Considerations

Ukraine’s economy, bolstered by substantial Western aid and relatively free from debilitating sanctions, demonstrates resilience. In contrast, Russia faces mounting economic challenges due to international sanctions. Indicators include a 2.1% GDP contraction in 2022, declining trade, and reduced revenues from fossil fuel exports; Trump's "secondary sanctions" might see those revenues reduce still further. Approximately €300 billion of Russian Central Bank reserves remain frozen, further straining Moscow’s financial capabilities. 

Strategic Challenges: Crimea and the Donbas

Retaking Crimea poses formidable challenges due to its heavily fortified nature and the logistical complexities of mounting an amphibious assault. Historical precedents, such as the Crimean War (1853-1856), underscore the difficulties of military operations in the region. Similarly, reclaiming major urban centres like Donetsk (892,000 in 2022) and Luhansk (394,000 in 2022) would require substantial troop commitments and could result in significant casualties, given the likelihood of entrenched Russian defences and urban combat scenarios with house-to-house fighting.

Even pushing through current Russian front lines, dominated by artillery and drones, would require intelligence-backed drone and other aerial operations to eliminate Russian drone stations and individual artillery pieces. It would be a formidable project, requiring the highest levels of intelligence and military cooperation; but the United States does have the capacity to assist the Ukrainian Armed Forces in achieving this.

Potential Outcomes and Negotiations

A well-executed Ukrainian counter-offensive, supported by increased Western aid, could alter the strategic calculus and pressure Russia into negotiations on more favourable terms for Ukraine. However, the success of such operations is uncertain and contingent upon numerous variables, including the timely delivery of aid, effective integration of new systems into Ukrainian Armed Forces operations quickly and efficiently, and the broader geopolitical environment including consistent US support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces now that the current US administration has come to see that Russian tactics are to delay a ceasefire for as long as possible in themselves hoping to achieve a breakthrough and seize more territory.

Conclusion

While the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with robust Western support, have the potential to challenge Russian positions and reclaim occupied territories, the endeavour is fraught with complexities. Success depends on sustained and enhanced military aid, strategic planning, and overcoming significant operational challenges, particularly in regions like Crimea and the Donbas. The coming month will be critical in determining whether Ukraine can leverage increased international support from Europe, and a shift in perspectives from the United States, to shift the momentum and achieve her territorial objectives.