Does China pose a strategic threat to Russia?

The relationship between China and Russia, currently lauded as a "no-limits partnership" by both Beijing and Moscow, presents a complex strategic dynamic that masks underlying vulnerabilities and potential future tensions for Russia. While superficially aligned against a perceived Western-dominated global order, China's rapidly ascending economic and military power, coupled with Russia's increasing isolation and dependency, suggests that Beijing poses a long-term strategic threat to Moscow. Historical parallels, particularly from the Sino-Soviet split, offer valuable insights into how ideological alignment can quickly give way to geopolitical rivalry when national interests diverge and power asymmetries grow.

The current Sino-Russian alignment is driven by a shared desire to counterbalance the United States and her European allies. Russia, heavily sanctioned and diplomatically isolated after her full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has become increasingly reliant on China as a market for her energy resources and a source of critical imports. This economic dependency is a significant strategic vulnerability for Russia. China, meanwhile, benefits from discounted Russian energy and a geopolitical partner willing to defy Western norms. However beneath this veneer of cooperation, deep-seated strategic mistrust persists, evident in leaked Russian intelligence documents from 2023 and 2924 reportedly identifying China as a significant "enemy" due to escalating espionage efforts and territorial ambitions.

Historically the Sino-Soviet relationship offers a poignant parallel. What began as a seemingly robust communist alliance in the mid-20th century, underpinned by shared ideology, eventually fractured into open hostility. The Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s was driven by a complex mix of ideological differences, personality clashes between Mao Zedong and Nikita Khrushchev and crucially, China's growing desire for independent Great Power status. Mao resented what he perceived as Soviet condescension and a lack of support, particularly in the face of the US. This led to border clashes in 1969 and a decades-long period of intense rivalry, demonstrating that even strong ideological ties cannot always override national interests and power dynamics.

Today the power asymmetry between China and Russia is far more pronounced than during the Cold War. China's economy dwarfs Russia's, and her technological and industrial base is vastly superior. This disparity is likely to deepen as Russia continues to bear the economic and military burden of the war in Ukraine. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is extending its economic and political influence deep into Central Asia, a region historically considered Russia's "backyard" or "near abroad". While Russia has largely acquiesced to China's growing presence in the region, there are latent concerns in Moscow about the erosion of its traditional sphere of influence. This mirrors, in a way, the historical anxieties of the Qing Dynasty in the 19th century as European powers, including Russia, encroached upon its periphery, leading to "unequal treaties" and territorial concessions.

Moreover reports of Chinese intelligence actively targeting Russian scientists and defence officials for sensitive military technology, including drone warfare tactics observed in Ukraine, underscore the competitive undertones. While China initially relied on Russian military exports to modernise her armed forces, she has since demonstrated a remarkable ability to reverse-engineer and indigenously produce advanced weaponry, significantly reducing her reliance on Russian arms. This technological leap by China, combined with her burgeoning military budget, means that Russia is increasingly the junior partner in terms of military capability, a stark contrast to the Soviet era.

The long-term demographic trends also favour China. Russia's Far East, sparsely populated and resource-rich, shares a lengthy border with a densely populated and economically vibrant China. While Russia has sought to mitigate fears of Chinese demographic expansion, the historical memory of past territorial disputes and Chinese maps occasionally depicting parts of the Russian Far East with historical Chinese place names fuel Russian anxieties. This quiet demographic and economic pressure could, over the next geopolitical era, become a significant strategic challenge for Russia's sovereignty and territorial integrity in her eastern regions.

While China and Russia currently present a united front against the West, this alliance is inherently transactional and driven by immediate geopolitical convergence rather than a deep, enduring ideological bond. Drawing parallels from the Sino-Soviet split, the growing power asymmetry, China's expanding influence in Russia's traditional spheres including military technology, and underlying strategic mistrust, strongly indicate that China poses a long-term strategic danger to Russia. As Russia's global standing diminishes and her reliance upon China grows, she risks becoming an increasingly junior partner, potentially subject to China's strategic imperatives. The "no-limits partnership" may, in the long run, reveal its own limitations for Russia, with Beijing's ascent ultimately challenging Moscow's strategic autonomy and influence, particularly in its own near abroad.