Could Ukraine hold elections in Summer 2025?

As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, speculation has grown over whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might call elections in the summer of 2025. With increasing pressure from the United States, a desire to call Russia’s bluff, and rising domestic popularity following a highly publicised diplomatic encounter in Washington, Zelenskyy may see strategic advantages in going to the polls. However, logistical and legal challenges remain significant, and the feasibility of wartime elections depends on multiple factors.

Reasons for Holding Elections

1. Pressure from the United States

The US has reportedly been pressing Ukraine to hold elections as a demonstration of democratic resilience. Some American officials argue that a wartime election would reinforce Ukraine’s legitimacy in the eyes of the international community, countering Russian narratives that Ukraine’s democratic system has been indefinitely suspended due to martial law.

2. Calling Russia’s Bluff

By holding elections, Zelenskyy could challenge Russian claims that Ukraine is operating as an authoritarian state. A successful election, even amid war, would show that Ukraine remains committed to democratic governance, further isolating Russia diplomatically.

3. A Surge in Popularity

Zelenskyy’s domestic popularity has surged following his recent confrontation with President Donald J. Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the White House. The event, which took place on 12 March 2025, saw Zelenskyy publicly push back against Trump’s demands for immediate acceptance of a new US-Ukraine minerals deal. The Ukrainian president’s refusal to be pressured in front of cameras earned him widespread support both at home and in Europe. If elections were held soon, Zelenskyy could capitalise on this wave of approval.

Potential Election Outcomes

1. Presidential Elections

Given his current popularity, Zelenskyy would likely secure re-election if he runs. However, his approval ratings could fluctuate if military setbacks occur or if Ukraine’s economy suffers further blows.

2. Parliamentary Elections

Elections for Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, could be more unpredictable. While Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party remains strong, war-related hardships and dissatisfaction with local governance could create opportunities for opposition parties. Some pro-European factions could gain ground, while those advocating negotiations with Russia might face backlash from the electorate.

Public Attitude Toward Elections

Ukrainians remain divided on the issue of wartime elections. A significant portion of the population supports democratic continuity, but concerns over security, fairness, and voter access persist. The ongoing war complicates traditional voting methods, especially for displaced citizens and soldiers on the front lines.

Legal and Logistical Challenges

1. Legal Considerations

Ukraine’s martial law, currently in effect, prohibits national elections. To hold elections, either martial law must be lifted temporarily or a legal exemption must be enacted. Given the war’s intensity, lifting martial law, even briefly, could pose security risks.

2. Logistical Issues

Holding elections during wartime presents significant logistical hurdles. Traditional polling stations could become targets for Russian attacks, and millions of Ukrainian refugees living abroad would need access to the voting process.

3. Digital Voting via the “Diiu” System

Ukraine’s government has developed “Diiu,” a digital infrastructure system available on citizens’ mobile phones, which could potentially be adapted for electronic voting. This system could allow soldiers to vote from the battlefield without leaving their posts and enable displaced Ukrainians to cast ballots remotely. However concerns about cybersecurity, foreign interference, and the integrity of an entirely digital election would need to be addressed.

Ensuring Fairness and International Oversight

To ensure the credibility of electronic elections, Ukraine would likely invite international observers, including representatives from the OSCE and the EU. These organisations could help verify transparency and ensure public confidence in the results.

Potential Political Advantages for Zelenskyy

If Zelenskyy wins re-election in a wartime vote, he would gain an even stronger mandate to negotiate a ceasefire or peace agreement with Russia. Such a move could remove any lingering American objections regarding his legitimacy in diplomatic talks. Furthermore it would demonstrate Ukraine’s resilience, reinforcing Western support at a critical time.

Conclusion

While holding elections in summer 2025 would be an enormous challenge, it could also be a wise strategic move for Zelenskyy. If successfully conducted, an election would strengthen Ukraine’s democratic credentials, enhance Zelenskyy’s authority in peace negotiations, and counter Russian propaganda. However, the logistical and legal barriers remain significant, and Ukraine will need to weigh the risks carefully before proceeding. If a workable solution is found—such as using the “Diiu” system while ensuring international oversight—Ukraine could achieve a historic democratic milestone even amid war.