Collateral Theatres: How the Israel–Iran Conflict Could Reshape the War in Ukraine

As missiles arc over Tel Aviv and Iranian proxies stir across the Middle East, the world’s attention finds itself divided between two ongoing wars—one in Eastern Europe, and the other in the Levant. The sudden transformation of the long-simmering Israel–Iran rivalry into open confrontation has not only destabilised the Middle East, but it also threatens to shift the geopolitical equilibrium of the war in Ukraine. Though separated by geography, the two theatres of conflict are deeply entangled in the strategic calculations of great powers and regional actors alike. The longer and bloodier the Israel–Iran conflict becomes, the greater the risk that Ukraine’s war effort will be affected—diplomatically, militarily, and symbolically.

Competing Strategic Focus: The Limits of Western Bandwidth

At the core of the concern is Western attention. Since 2022 Ukraine has been the central front of the West’s confrontation with revisionist authoritarianism. But strategic attention, like military budgets, is finite. Should the Israel–Iran war intensify and widen—threatening the Strait of Hormuz, drawing in Hezbollah, or even forcing a US military response—Washington’s already-strained capacity to provide focused support to Kyiv could suffer.

This would not be the first time a Middle Eastern crisis diverted Western strategic attention. The 2003 Iraq War, for example, reshaped global security dynamics and reduced NATO’s collective focus elsewhere. In 2025, amidst simultaneous threats in Europe and the Middle East, the risk is of a fractured Western consensus. Some American political voices are already suggesting that Ukraine and Israel must “compete” for resources. If that logic takes hold in Washington’s budget process, Ukraine could suffer from reductions in military aid, intelligence prioritisation, or diplomatic capital.

Russian Opportunism: The Kremlin Watches and Waits

The Kremlin, long skilled in geopolitical opportunism, is undoubtedly monitoring events with interest. A prolonged or escalating Middle Eastern war may be viewed in Moscow as a strategic windfall. There are three reasons for this.

First, it allows Russia to reposition itself as a key interlocutor in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Moscow has maintained relatively cordial relations with both Tehran and Jerusalem, and may attempt to cast itself as a peacemaker or power broker. Second, the longer the West is consumed by Middle Eastern crisis management, the less time and capacity it has to deepen sanctions enforcement or organise further support for Kyiv. Third, Moscow might gamble that US munitions and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) capabilities will be diverted to the Gulf theatre, thereby slowing deliveries to Ukraine.

There is also the risk that Iran, seeing herself under existential pressure from Israel and perhaps the United States, turns more explicitly to Russia as a strategic partner. Iran has already supplied Moscow with drones, and has trained Russian personnel in drone use and manufacturing. A wider war may see Iran and Russia deepen their military-industrial cooperation—a worrying possibility for Ukraine and her allies.

Ukraine’s Position: Diplomatic Dilemmas and Strategic Calculations

Kyiv has so far handled the Middle East conflict with characteristic diplomatic finesse. President Zelenskyy’s government has expressed support for Israel’s right to self-defence while also calling for de-escalation and the protection of civilians. However, Ukraine’s room for manoeuvre is narrow. Israel has maintained cautious neutrality in the war in Ukraine, refusing to send weapons but quietly cooperating on intelligence. Iran, by contrast, is actively arming Russia.

A wider war in the Middle East may present Ukraine with an opportunity to press her case: to argue that the global challenge of authoritarian aggression—be it in Russia or Iran—requires a united and coherent Western response. Indeed, Kyiv has already drawn parallels between Iranian drone technology used in Gaza and that deployed against Ukrainian cities. A prolonged Israel–Iran war could therefore serve Ukraine’s interests diplomatically, reinforcing the narrative that these conflicts are part of a broader global confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism.

The Israel Factor: Balancing Relationships

For Israel, a long war with Iran may reinforce her traditionally cautious stance on Ukraine. Faced with Iranian drones over Haifa and Israeli reservists returning to duty, Jerusalem may have even less political bandwidth to engage with Kyiv. Moreover Israeli policymakers remain wary of provoking Russia too directly: that might create an additional front for support for Iran that could undermine international support for Israel's efforts to neutralise Iran's nuclear programme.

However, this could change. If Iran’s deepened cooperation with Russia begins to impact Israel directly—for example through the transfer of Russian air defence systems to Iranian territory or missile cooperation—Israel may reconsider her posture. In a long war, the separation between the two conflicts may collapse, encouraging Israel to strengthen her quiet cooperation with Ukraine in areas like cyber defence, counter-drone warfare and shared threat assessment.

Global Repercussions and Great Power Dynamics

If the Israel–Iran conflict becomes prolonged, it could mark the fragmentation of the global security system. Already, the United States faces twin strategic challenges: sustaining Ukrainian resistance to Russian invasion and containing Iranian regional ambitions. Add a growing standoff with China over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and the risk of global overstretch becomes acute.

For Europe, a wider Middle Eastern war may accelerate the recognition that it must assume greater responsibility for Ukraine’s defence. A US distracted by the Gulf may spur NATO European members—especially Poland, Germany, and France—to accelerate arms deliveries and long-term support packages. The EU may also use the moment to push for more rapid Ukrainian accession, as a gesture of strategic alignment.

Conclusion: Twin Conflicts, Interwoven Futures

The Israel–Iran conflict and the war in Ukraine are more connected than they may first appear. A protracted Middle Eastern war could strain Western resources, encourage Russian adventurism, and pressurise Ukraine’s diplomatic position. But it could also clarify the stakes of the international order: a moment of crisis in which democracies face authoritarian powers on multiple fronts, and in which the United States takes the lead in the Middle East while a self-renewing militarised Europe takes the front against Russian land-based aggression in Ukraine.

For Kyiv the challenge is to ensure that Ukraine does not become a “forgotten war”, overshadowed by bombs in the Levant. Instead, Ukraine must continue to present herself as a frontline of global stability—part of a wider battle for a rules-based international system. If she can do so, even amidst new distractions, st may retain and even deepen the support she needs to endure.