The peace negotiation strategy for Ukraine, spearheaded by US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg, faces significant challenges that may jeopardise its success. While the precise details of the strategy remain confidential, its general framework involves shuttle diplomacy, economic incentives, and potential security guarantees. However, recent developments suggest that the approach may be faltering.
Shuttle Diplomacy and Economic Incentives
Kellogg’s strategy employs shuttle diplomacy, engaging separately with Russian and Ukrainian officials due to their unwillingness to engage directly. Economic incentives form a cornerstone of this approach: Ukraine is offered assistance in mineral resource exploitation through US technological investments, while Russia is enticed with the prospect of sanction relief and potential US investment in her industries.
However, the effectiveness of these incentives is questionable. Historically, Russia has prioritised territorial expansion over economic growth, a sentiment deeply rooted in its national psyche. This suggests that economic inducements alone may be insufficient to alter Russia’s strategic objectives in Ukraine.
Security Guarantees: A Critical Component
For Ukraine, security assurances are paramount. President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasised the necessity of “reliable and clear” security guarantees to ensure that the conflict does not reignite. Without a robust security presence along any established armistice line, there is a legitimate concern that Russia could regroup and resume hostilities in the future.
Despite this, the US has expressed reluctance to commit troops to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that while durable peace requires “robust security guarantees,” US troops will not participate in peacekeeping activities, suggesting that European and non-European forces should assume this role. This stance may undermine Ukraine’s confidence in the proposed peace framework and weaken its negotiating position, not least because Europe does not currently have the estimated 100,000 peacekeepers needed at its disposal; and Ukraine would lack confidence in non-European peacekeepers on her soil.
Diplomatic Strains and European Involvement
Diplomatic relations between the US and Ukraine have become strained. A scheduled joint press conference between US envoy Kellogg and President Zelensky was abruptly cancelled following contentious remarks from President Trump, who labeled Zelensky a “dictator.” Such tensions complicate the negotiation process and may hinder the development of a cohesive peace strategy.
In response to perceived US disengagement, European nations are proactively formulating plans to support Ukraine. Countries like Britain and France are considering deploying troops to enforce any future peace settlement, reflecting a growing European commitment to Ukraine’s security. This shift indicates that Europe may play a more prominent role in the peace process, potentially sidelining US efforts.
Reaching peace
The current US peace negotiation strategy for Ukraine, as orchestrated by Special Envoy Keith Kellogg, appears to be in jeopardy. The reliance on economic incentives may not sufficiently address Russia’s territorial ambitions, and the absence of concrete security guarantees for Ukraine raises concerns about the durability of any proposed settlement. Additionally, diplomatic tensions and the increasing involvement of European nations suggest a need to reassess and potentially recalibrate the US approach to effectively facilitate a lasting peace in the region.