An assessment of the Russian Armed Forces and their threat to Europe

The Russian Armed Forces remain one of the largest military forces in the world. As of 2025, estimates suggest that Russia has approximately 1.2 million active personnel (or 0.8% of the population) and an additional 2 million reservists. This is a significant reduction from the Soviet era, when the Red Army at the end of the Cold War in 1990 numbered over 3.7 million personnel. This contrasts with the United States (approximately 1.3 million active personnel, or 0.38% of the population), the United Kingdom (140,000, or 0.2% of the population), Germany (140,000, or 0.21% of the population) or China (2.035 million, or 0.15% of the population). Russia and her predecessor, the Soviet Union, are and always have been some of the most highly militarised states in the world.

Despite the post-war reduction in armed services members, Russia has sought to modernise her military capabilities, with mixed results. The Russian Armed Forces are equipped with an extensive arsenal, but their effectiveness has been called into question due to losses sustained in the war in Ukraine. Equipment numbers include:

• Tanks: Approximately 12,000 tanks, though many are outdated Soviet-era models, with only a fraction being the modern T-90M variant. By contrast European armies have around 6,500 tanks, although again many are mothballed and in need of modernisation.

  
  

• Armoured Personnel Vehicles (APCs): Around 30,000, but as with tanks, many are aging designs.

  
  

• Fighter Jets: Roughly 900 combat-ready aircraft, including Su-57, Su-35, and Su-34 models. By contrast Europe has about 1,300 fighter aircraft.

  
  

• Bombers: About 120 long-range bombers, including Tu-95 and Tu-160 models, primarily used for strategic deterrence by arming them with bombs with nuclear warheads. By contrast Europe has none, and the United States has about 140.

  
  

European NATO members collectively possess a more advanced and better-maintained force. European nations are not numerically inferior either, having about 1.5 million active service personnel (not including Ukraine's active personnel of 1.26 million), but they are comparatively weak by reason of the absence of a unified command structure which Russia does have. European armies nevertheless benefit from superior training, logistics, and high-tech equipment.

Naval Capabilities and Weaknesses

The Russian Navy is in a significantly diminished state, lacking a functioning aircraft carrier after the repeated failures of its sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov. Comparatively, European navies, including those of the UK, France, and Italy, maintain multiple aircraft carriers with modern operational capacity. Russia’s naval power projection is now largely reliant on its submarine fleet and coastal defense systems, making it a limited threat beyond its immediate waters.

Potential Threat to Europe

While the Russian Armed Forces retain numerical superiority in some areas, a large-scale (or even small-scale) land invasion beyond Ukraine would be highly vulnerable. If European nations acted in unison, even without the United States, they could likely halt and repel a Russian advance due to superior logistics, technological advantages, and a more sustainable supply chain. Russia’s logistical shortcomings, exposed in Ukraine, demonstrate its reliance on outdated Soviet-era planning and infrastructure, which would struggle against coordinated European defences.

Budget and Economic Constraints

• Russia’s defence budget for 2025: Estimated at $120-150 billion.

  
  

• Comparison with other nations:

  
  

  • United States: Over $850 billion.

    
    

  • European NATO nations combined: Over $350 billion.

    
    

  • United Kingdom: Approximately $80 billion.

    
    

  • France: Approximately $60 billion.

    
    

While Russia spends a higher proportion of its GDP on defence (around 6-7%), her total GDP remains modest, at around $1.5-1.7 trillion. This means that despite high military expenditure, the Russian economy struggles to sustain such spending, leading to deprivation in other sectors such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

Demographic and Societal Challenges

Russia’s war effort has taken a severe toll on her population:

• An estimated 500,000+ fatal casualties in Ukraine, with tens of thousands more wounded.

  
  

• A historically low birth rate, exacerbated by economic hardship and war.

  
  

• A shrinking workforce, with military conscription removing young men from key economic sectors.

  
  

These factors suggest that Russia faces a looming population crisis, which could weaken its ability to sustain long-term military commitments.

Political Ramifications and Future Stability

The militarisation of Russian society has further entrenched her authoritarian political structures, but economic decline and military casualties may eventually provoke public discontent. While dissatisfaction is increasingly apparent, especially as economic hardship spreads to Moscow and St. Petersburg, Russia’s history suggests resilience to democratic reforms.

Should Vladimir Putin’s rule end within the next decade, any successor is unlikely to pursue significant demilitarisation. Instead, power may transfer to another hardliner who could double down on military ambitions, posing continued risks to European security that Europe must be ready for by increasing its own security spending and commitments.

Despite its large military size, Russia's armed forces face significant constraints in terms of logistics, technology, and economic sustainability. Europe, if unified, remains in a strong position to deter or repel any aggression. However, Russia’s long-term strategy and leadership transitions will be critical in determining whether her increasing militarisation leads to eventual collapse or further escalation of hostilities.