In a significant move towards de-escalation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed a ceasefire encompassing aerial and maritime operations as an initial step towards a broader peace agreement with Russia. This proposal aims to mitigate the ongoing conflict’s intensity and pave the way for more comprehensive negotiations.
Military Capabilities of Ukraine and Russia in Sea and Air
Maritime Forces:
Ukraine’s naval capabilities suffered substantial setbacks following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, resulting in the loss of key naval assets. Despite these challenges, Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and adaptability. Notably, Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and sank Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022 using domestically developed R-360 Neptune anti-ship missiles. This event underscored Ukraine’s capacity to challenge larger naval forces effectively. Additionally, Ukraine has reclaimed strategic positions such as Snake Island, bolstering her defensive posture in the Black Sea.
Conversely, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, headquartered in Sevastopol, Crimea, comprises a range of vessels, including frigates, submarines, and support ships. The fleet has played a pivotal role in projecting Russian power in the region and enforcing maritime blockades affecting Ukrainian ports.
Air Forces:
Ukraine’s air force operates a mix of Soviet-era aircraft and has been integrating Western technology to enhance her capabilities. The potential acquisition of U.S. F-16 fighter jets was anticipated to significantly bolster Ukraine’s air defense and offensive operations. However, the recent suspension of US military aid under President Trump has cast uncertainty over this enhancement, compelling Ukraine to seek alternative support from European allies. While Ukraine has access to seven F-16 aircraft, it seems unlikely that this will increase.
Russia’s aerospace forces maintain a robust fleet of advanced aircraft, including Su-35 fighters and Tu-22M bombers, providing substantial air superiority and long-range strike capabilities. Russian forces have utilised these assets to conduct extensive aerial operations throughout the conflict.
Ceasefire Provisions and Potential Consequences
Implementing a ceasefire in the sea and air domains would necessitate both parties halting offensive operations involving aircraft, drones, naval vessels, and missile systems. For Ukraine, this would include suspending the deployment of Neptune missiles and other anti-ship systems. Russia would be required to cease aerial bombardments and naval blockades.
Impact on the Port of Odesa:
A maritime ceasefire could lead to the lifting of blockades on Ukrainian ports, notably Odesa, a crucial hub for grain exports. Resuming operations in Odesa would revitalise Ukraine’s economy and alleviate global food supply concerns, given Ukraine’s significant role in agricultural exports.
Disposition of the Russian Black Sea Fleet:
The ceasefire might entail the repositioning of Russian naval assets, potentially returning elements of the Black Sea Fleet to their base in Sevastopol in Crimea, a Russian naval base even before the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Such a move could serve as a confidence-building measure, signalling Russia’s commitment to de-escalation and adherence to the ceasefire terms.
Inclusion of Drones:
Incorporating drones into the ceasefire agreement is crucial, given their extensive use for reconnaissance and targeted strikes by both sides. A halt in drone operations could reduce the frequency of surprise attacks and provide a more stable environment conducive to peace talks. While there are no reliable figures for the number of drones used by each side in the course of war, estimates suggest that Ukraine manufactured some 2.2 million shorter range First Person View (FPV) drones in 2024 and some 100,000 longer range drones in the same year, while Russia estimated that it had manufactured some 1.4 million FPV drones in 2024. It is difficult to be more reliable than this.
Effect on Ground Warfare and Civilian Infrastructure:
While the proposed ceasefire focuses on sea and air operations, it could indirectly influence ground combat. Reduced aerial and naval support would limit the capabilities of ground forces, potentially leading to a de-escalation in frontline engagements. Moreover, a decrease in airstrikes would likely result in fewer civilian casualties and less damage to infrastructure, addressing humanitarian concerns and facilitating post-conflict reconstruction.
Assessment of the Ceasefire as a Prelude to Ground Conflict Resolution
Establishing a ceasefire in the sea and air domains represents a strategic de-escalation, building trust between the conflicting parties. Such a measure could serve as a foundation for broader negotiations addressing territorial disputes and political differences. However the success of this initiative hinges on mutual compliance and the establishment of effective monitoring and deterrence mechanisms to prevent violations. Presumably the United States, as broker of the current anticipated partial ceasefire, would need to take a pivotal role in monitoring and enforcement, in particular in light of her superior aerial intelligence infrastructure.
In conclusion, President Zelenskyy’s proposal for a sea and air ceasefire offers a pragmatic approach to reducing hostilities and creating a conducive environment for comprehensive peace negotiations. The potential reopening of Odesa and the repositioning of Russian naval forces are positive indicators. Nonetheless, the complexity of the conflict necessitates sustained diplomatic efforts and concessions from both sides to achieve lasting peace.